Analysts Downgrade COIN Stock to Sell as Coinbase No Longer Projected to Beat Q4 Earnings

COIN stock is facing renewed scrutiny after analysts warned that Coinbase is unlikely to surpass Q4 earnings expectations under current market conditions. The revised outlook reflects continued weakness in digital asset trading and reduced visibility across near-term financial performance.

COIN Stock Downgraded to Sell Over Current Market Conditions

Monness, Crespi, Hardt downgrade Coinbase from Buy to Sell due to prolonged weakness in digital asset markets, adding to new pressure on COIN stock. The firm said its previous recovery expectations did not reflect the more normal magnitude and length of bear cycles in cryptocurrencies.

The COIN stock price is down 3.93% to $146.94 on the downgrade. The stock is down 53.72% over the past six months and off 33.56% year-to-date. It has dropped significantly from its recent high of $444.64.

The research firm also trimmed its estimates of revenue, EBITDA, and per-share earnings for 2026 and 2027. It is now projecting softness into the first half of 2026. 

Monness Crespi also stated that fourth-quarter 2025 forecasts require downward revisions. The firm flagged potential weakness in transaction revenue and subscription and services income. Under its revised model, Coinbase is no longer projected to beat Q4 earnings expectations.

Even with the downgrade, Monness, Crespi, and Hardt still liked Coinbase over the long term as a stablecoin infrastructure and asset tokenization play. The firm called those areas structural growth opportunities. But it stressed that the near-term headwinds outweighed those longer-term prospects.

Other Target Cuts And Insider Sales

Other Wall Street firms shifted price targets but maintained supportive ratings. H.C. Wainwright reduced its price target to $350 from $425 but kept a Buy rating. The company said it expects below-consensus net revenue and adjusted EBITDA for Q4 of 2025 due to challenging trading conditions in the crypto market.

JPMorgan cuts COIN stock price target to $290 from its earlier target of $399, hinting at a less favorable operating environment for digital currencies. The shares have been classified as overweight for the bank, despite the reduction in targets.

Insider action has contributed to investor focus. On February 12, VanEck’s Director of Digital Assets, Matthew Sigel, revealed that the CEO, Brian Armstrong, sold 40,000 shares on January 5. Based on its stock price at the time, the deal was worth about $101.6 million. Sigel also highlighted data that showed that Armstrong has sold around $500 million worth of shares over the last nine months. 

Market signals show a loss of faith in short-term prospects. Traders now give 22% odds on the fact that Coinbase will beat quarterly earnings estimates, according to Polymarket data. It is worth noting that the number fell from its former rate above 75%.

Separately, in an X post, analyst Chainyoda linked recent COIN stock downgrades to the failure of the CLARITY initiative. If the legislative window remains open, further upgrades could be contingent on regulatory advancement, the analyst added.