Binance vs Coinbase: How Will US Probe of Binance Affect COIN Stock Price?

Binance is under renewed regulatory scrutiny after a U.S. senator launched an inquiry into alleged violations of Iran and Russia sanctions. Will the Binance FUD have a domino effect on Coinbase and the COIN stock price?

Binance vs Coinbase: US Investigation into Binance Crypto Exchange for Sanctions Violations

Richard Blumenthal, the top Democrat on the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, has opened an inquiry into crypto exchange Binance over alleged violations of Iran and Russia sanctions.

The US Senator sent a letter to Richard Teng, co-chief executive officer of Binance, requesting information and records regarding the recent dismissal of compliance staff who identified nearly $1.7 billion in transactions to Iranian organizations and transfers that circumvented US sanctions on Russian oil.

Crypto market participants, including Coinbase, are closely monitoring these developments. Reports indicate Binance facilitated about $1.7 billion in crypto transfers to sanctioned Iranian entities.

Reports from The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal describe an internal Binance investigation from late 2025 that uncovered these transactions. In his open letter to CEO Richard Teng, Senator Blumenthal referred to Binance as a “repeat offender.”

Binance has denied these allegations. Richard Teng stated, “We have sent the attached letter demanding immediate corrections and a full retraction of these false statements.” It is worth noting that this probe comes amid Binance’s founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao’s revelation of plans to expand Binance U.S. after the SEC dropped the lawsuit against the exchange’s U.S. arm.

Some media uses negative narratives (from fired employees).

Binance uses data.

Best compliance program in the industry, by far!https://t.co/oJUT0vWDjB https://t.co/hoT0qpE9ln

— CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) February 23, 2026

Potential Impact on COIN Stock Price

Historically, regulatory actions against Binance have indirectly benefited Coinbase due to the shift in user trust and trading volume toward more compliant platforms.

After the US SEC sued Binance and Coinbase in 2023, COIN stock rallied almost 200% in the next six months. In the same period, Bitcoin jumped only 50% due to the broader market pressure.

COIN stock price has jumped more than 1% during pre-market trading hours today. The stock closed 1.12% higher at $162.03 on Tuesday, despite Bitcoin price slipping below $63K.

However, analysts have lowered COIN stock price target, with an average 12-month price target of $259. Mizuho reduced Coinbase price target from $280 to $170, while maintaining a ‘hold’ rating.

Wall Street analysts have cited disappointing Q4 financial results of Coinbase, with a net loss of $666.7 million. Coinbase’s revenue and earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst expectations. Meanwhile, Binance continues to face new FUD, keeping selling pressure on Bitcoin intact amid lower exchange trading volumes.