Peter Brandt Warns Bitcoin Could Dip Below Strategy’s Average Purchase Price as MSTR’s mNAV Falls

Peter Brandt has raised the possibility that the Bitcoin price could drop below Strategy’s average purchase price. This comes amid the BTC crash below $100,000 while MSTR’s mNAV has also fallen below the value of the company’s BTC holdings.

Brandt Predicts Bitcoin Could Drop To Below $50,000

The veteran trader stated in an X post that the downside target for BTC could be sub $50,000 if the recent violation of the parabolic advance is similar to previous events. This came as he questioned what price Michael Saylor’s Strategy could fall underwater with their BTC holdings, adding that the flagship crypto could test Saylor “severely.”

Question:
At what price is Michael Saylor underwater?
Bitcoin could test him severely. If recent violation of the parabolic advance is similar to previous events the downside target could be sub $50s. This is NOT a prediction you pesty trolls pic.twitter.com/oCvgZQVGY4

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 13, 2025

Notably, a Bitcoin drop below $50,000 would put Strategy’s position underwater as the company’s current average purchase price for its BTC holdings is $74,079. Strategy just announced another purchase of 487 BTC for $49.9 million, despite the market dip.

Brandt’s prediction comes amid the BTC price crash below $100,000, with the flagship crypto currently trading at around $95,000. This has raised concerns that the market may be in a full-blown bear market.

Thanks to the Bitcoin crash, Strategy’s stock has fallen below $200 and now has a market cap of $60 billion. As a result, MSTR’s mNAV is now below 1, with its market cap below the value of its BTC holdings, which is worth $61 billion at the current market price.

The MSTR stock is now down over 30% year-to-date (YTD) despite reaching a 2025 high of around $455 earlier this year. The stock is also down 47% in the last six months.

BTC Likely To Bottom Between $38,000 and $50,000

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez also echoed Peter Brandt’s prediction, stating that Bitcoin could bottom between $38,000 and $50,000. He made this statement based on the four-year cycle, indicating that BTC may already be in a bear market.

328 days remain until Bitcoin $BTC reaches a market bottom, likely between $38,000 and $50,000. https://t.co/raXmAieErQ pic.twitter.com/O7BVpcKh9t

— Ali (@ali_charts) November 11, 2025

However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared that Bitcoin is not in a bear market as long as capital keeps flowing in. He noted that capital is still flowing in and that the BTC price can rebound at any time if OG whales stop selling and macro flips sentiment.

CAPITAL IS STILL FLOWING INTO BITCOIN.

IF OG WHALES STOP SELLING AND MACRO FLIPS SENTIMENT,

BITCOIN CAN REBOUND ANYTIME. https://t.co/KIgft99PNt

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 14, 2025

CryptoQuant stated that BTC’s decline is driven by U.S. liquidity stress, long-term holder (LTH) tax-driven profit-taking, and persistent American selling. In line with this, the analysis noted that the current correction is driven primarily by the United States.

Bitcoin’s Decline Driven by U.S. Liquidity Stress, LTH Tax-Driven Profit Taking, and Persistent American Selling

“Together, these factors form a clear narrative: the current correction is driven primarily by the United States.” – By @xwinfinance pic.twitter.com/mIPbwqgM4r

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 14, 2025