Peter Schiff Predicts BTC to Fall, Gold to Rise as Markets Price in Prolonged Iran War

Bitcoin surged above $70,000 this week as markets reacted to escalating conflict between the United States and Iran. However, Peter Schiff renewed his criticism of Bitcoin, arguing the rally could mislead investors during wartime volatility. Earlier, Schiff warned that Bitcoin above $71,000 represented a “head fake,” urging investors to sell Bitcoin and move funds into gold or silver.

Peter Schiff Doubles Down on Gold During War Uncertainty

Peter Schiff, on X, issued his latest warning as global markets digested rising geopolitical tensions linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict. He argued that investors currently expect the war to remain short and manageable. However, Schiff said that outcome remains unlikely and explained that markets could shift quickly if the conflict drags on longer than expected.

According to Schiff, a prolonged war would pressure stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and the U.S. dollar. At the same time, he expects oil and gold prices to climb significantly. His comments come during a period when oil prices have surged after the conflict disrupted key energy routes.

However, gold declined despite the geopolitical tensions, while Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction and continued rising. This price divergence added a new outlook to the debate over safe-haven assets, since gold traditionally attracts investors during wartime uncertainty and market stress. Yet recent market moves showed Bitcoin gaining while gold pulled back.

Bitcoin Surges as Analysts Debate Safe-Haven Narrative

While Schiff criticized Bitcoin’s rally, other market voices addressed the unusual price behavior. As CoinGape reported, billionaire hedge fund founder Ray Dalio also questioned comparisons between Bitcoin and gold. Dalio argued that Bitcoin lacks central bank backing and offers limited privacy advantages, while also warning that future quantum computing developments could threaten the cryptocurrency’s security model.

These remarks came as Bitcoin outperformed gold during the latest U.S.-Iran conflict. The contrast between the two assets became more visible after Iranian airstrikes intensified regional tensions. However, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas urged caution when interpreting short-term price moves and said recent market behavior does not necessarily redefine Bitcoin or gold as safe-haven assets.

Balchunas noted that Bitcoin gained roughly 12 percent following the Iranian attacks, while gold prices moved lower during the same period. He explained that market-making activity and sentiment shifts likely influenced those movements. 

CryptoQuant Data Shows Relief Rally as Selling Pressure Eases

On-chain data shows Bitcoin price’s recent strength. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin rallied after selling pressure across spot markets began to decline. Demand contraction narrowed sharply this year, dropping from negative 136,000 BTC early in 2026 to around negative 25,000 BTC recently.

Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium indicator turned positive, suggesting renewed buying activity from United States investors. The CryptoQuant report also observed reduced selling from traders and long-term holders, while trader unrealized losses reached levels last recorded in July 2022.

Historically, such conditions reduce marginal selling and support short-term rebounds. Long-term holder distribution also slowed significantly in recent months, with the 30-day selling pace falling from 904,000 BTC in November to roughly 276,000 BTC recently. That marked the lowest level recorded since June 2025.

Despite the rebound, CryptoQuant still described current market conditions as bearish overall. Its Bull Score Index remained low at 10 out of 100. The firm also identified two key resistance levels if Bitcoin continues rising, with the first near $79,000 and a stronger resistance appearing around $90,000.

Source: CryptoQuant