PlanB Says Bear Market Almost Over, Bitcoin (BTC) In Buying Range

PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, claims the bear market is almost over, and is optimistic on Bitcoin's technical indicators.
By Varinder Singh
Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) is reeling under the bear market. The crypto market is still under pressure, while the Bitcoin price continues to dive below the crucial $30,000 level. However, PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, claims the bear market is almost over. He is optimistic because periods with the Realized Price Moving Average (RPMA) <1 and Relative Strength Index <50 have historically been great times to buy. Although, PlanB also thinks it can take a while before RPMA and RSI will rise again.

Advertisement
Advertisement

PlanB: Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom Is Over As Bear Hug Eases

PlanB recently disclosed that the Bitcoin (BTC) price is forming a new bottom for the next bull market. BTC trend this week moved as per PlanB forecasts, the price made a low near the $28,500 level.

Now, PlanB in a tweet reports the bear market is almost over and the price should start rising again. He believes the RPMA and RSI at current levels suggest a bottom for Bitcoin. However, it could be 6-9 months (like 2014 and 2018/19), or 1-2 months (like 2011 and 2020) before we could see a bounce. Currently, the Bitcoin is moving sideways near the $30,000 level.

 Bitcoin (BTC) 2Y Realized Price
Bitcoin (BTC) 2Y Realized Price. Source: PlanB

“Realized Price / Moving Average (RPMA, purple) shows the Bitcoin cycle best. Relative Strength Index (RSI, yellow) is similar, but can be misleading at critical times (e.g. 2nd half 2021). The good news: bear market is almost over. Waiting for RPMA and RSI to start rising again.”

Furthermore, PlanB also shared a correlation between the U.S. equities market and Bitcoin, especially S&P 500 and Bitcoin. Both the equities market and Bitcoin have dived lower since November 2021.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is in a bear market as it has dived nearly 20%. Analysts believe Bitcoin accumulation at the current price could give more returns to long-term investors.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Bitcoin Halving Still Remains the Main Indicator

Despite PlanB view on the bear market, his followers also believe the bear market is still not over, considering the Bitcoin halving. The trend shows October as the bottom where the bitcoin price could confirm a rebound. However, if the bear market ends in 1-2 months if the 2Y realized price and RSI make a v-shape recovery. A new all-time-high could be seen in a year.

Advertisement
Varinder Singh
Varinder has over 10 years of experience and is known as a seasoned leader for his involvement in the fintech sector. With over 5 years dedicated to blockchain, crypto, and Web3 developments, he has experienced two Bitcoin halving events making him key opinion leader in the space. At CoinGape Media, Varinder leads the editorial decisions, spearheading the news team to cover latest updates, markets trends and developments within the crypto industry. The company was recognized as Best Crypto Media Company 2024 for high impact and quality reporting. Being a Master of Technology degree holder, analytics thinker, technology enthusiast, Varinder has shared his knowledge of disruptive technologies in over 5000+ news, articles, and papers.
Why trust CoinGape: CoinGape has covered the cryptocurrency industry since 2017, aiming to provide informative insights to our readers. Our journalists and analysts bring years of experience in market analysis and blockchain technology to ensure factual accuracy and balanced reporting. By following our Editorial Policy, our writers verify every source, fact-check each story, rely on reputable sources, and attribute quotes and media correctly. We also follow a rigorous Review Methodology when evaluating exchanges and tools. From emerging blockchain projects and coin launches to industry events and technical developments, we cover all facets of the digital asset space with unwavering commitment to timely, relevant information.
Investment disclaimer: The content reflects the author’s personal views and current market conditions. Please conduct your own research before investing in cryptocurrencies, as neither the author nor the publication is responsible for any financial losses.
Ad Disclosure: This site may feature sponsored content and affiliate links. All advertisements are clearly labeled, and ad partners have no influence over our editorial content.