Polymarket Trader Made $400K on Maduro Bet, Raising Insider Trading Allegations

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s arrest sparks fresh Polymarket controversy as a mysterious trio of wallets raked in over $630K via alleged insider trading. Reportedly, the newly created wallets on Polymarket made huge bets on the removal of Maduro just hours before his capture by the US military.

As the trio predicted the event with 94% accuracy, it has sparked speculations of a possible insider trading. Thus, the incident has invoked a heated debate on the ethics of prediction markets, as more crypto platforms are entering the space.

Maduro Arrest Sparks Polymarket Insider Trading Allegations

According to the latest Wall Street Journal report, prediction market traders have been placing huge bets on the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s expulsion this month.

It is worth noting that the odds of Maduro being displaced by January 31 surged to around 6% shortly before 10 pm EST on Friday. This steady rise in the prediction comes just hours before Maduro’s arrest.

These prediction events take a more interesting turn as three Polymarket traders secured a staggering profit of $630k. As per the findings, three mysterious wallets that have been created recently raked in benefits after predicting Maduro’s ouster. One of the wallets turned $34k into a massive $400k. Lookonchain noted, “Notably, all three wallets only bet on events related to Venezuela and Maduro, with no history of other bets — a clear case of insider trading.”

Three insider wallets on #Polymarket bet on Venezuelan President Maduro being out of office just hours before his arrest, netting a total profit of $630,484!

The three wallets were created and pre-funded days in advance.

Then, just hours before Maduro's arrest, they suddenly… pic.twitter.com/VRAkQh8i9a

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 4, 2026

Significantly, these predictions come ahead of the arrest of Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, by US forces in Caracas on charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine-importation conspiracy, and weapons. Maduro’s son and other senior officials are also facing similar charges. As CoinGape noted, the crypto market remains stable despite the ongoing Venezuela strike.

Following the issue, Attorney General Pam Bondi stated that Maduro and his wife will “soon face the full wrath of American justice on American soil in American courts.”

Prediction Markets Under Scrutiny

Notably, ahead of the US strikes, the betting on the Venezuelan President’s removal from office surged. Between 1:15 am and 1:50 am, the likelihood increased from 6% to 12.5%. This significant activity and allegations of insider trading have sparked concerns about the standards of prediction markets.

These concerns carry more weight considering the growing popularity of prediction markets. New prediction markets are being launched, with leading crypto exchanges driving the trend. For instance, Coinbase has introduced its own prediction market in collaboration with Kalshi.

Other crypto players like Gemini and Crypto.com are also on the list, exploring more opportunities with their own prediction markets.