SBF Will Likely Serve 25 Years Rather Than Max Sentence, Former DOJ Prosecutor Says

Renato Mariotti, a former prosecutor in the U.S Justice Department’s Securities and Commodities Fraud Section, recently shared his insight into the potential length of Sam Bankman-Fried’s (SBF) sentence, suggesting that the former CEO may spend 25 years behind bars.

What Factors Can Influence the SBF Sentence?

Mariotti emphasizes in a recent report that while the statutory maximum sentence for Bankman-Fried’s crimes is approximately 115 years, the federal sentencing guidelines serve as a crucial reference point. 

These guidelines take into account various factors, such as the severity of the crimes and the defendant’s criminal history, to determine a more reasonable sentencing range. Given the scale of the offenses and SBF’s actions throughout the trial, the sentencing guidelines are likely to be “sky high.”

The former DOJ prosecutor highlights that the judge must consider all circumstances surrounding the defendant and the offense when determining the final sentence. This includes factors like remorse, cooperation with authorities, and the impact of the crimes on the victims. Mariotti suggests that Judge Kaplan may have more sympathy for the victims than for Bankman-Fried, considering the magnitude of the fraud.

Former Assistant United States Attorney Kevin J. O’Brien, who specializes in white-collar criminal defense in New York City, agreed, saying, “Since judges have discretion even under the Guidelines, I believe his sentence will be in the 15 to 20-year range.”

On the other hand, Yesha Yadav, a law professor, and Associate Dean at Vanderbilt University, pointed out that the overwhelming consensus among the jury will give Judge Kaplan the confidence to impose a more severe sentence than a lenient one, considering the gravity of Bankman-Fried’s offenses.

SBF’s Potential for Mitigation

Despite the gravity of his crimes, some experts point out that SBF is still relatively young and has an opportunity to make a positive contribution during his lifetime. Unlike violent offenders, SBF’s crimes are financial, which may influence the judge’s decision.

A wildcard in this case is the possibility of a second trial with separate charges in March 2024. The Department of Justice has until February 1 to decide whether to proceed with this second case. If found guilty in this additional trial, then the SBF sentence may become even longer.

It remains unclear at this time what sentences will be handed over to Caroline Ellison and Gary Wang, two of the witnesses whose testimonies during the trial helped in solidifying the DOJ’s case against Bankman-Fried.