U.S. Shutdown Odds Hit 78% as CLARITY Act Faces Fresh Uncertainty

The CLARITY Act remains under consideration in Congress as prediction markets sharply increased expectations of another U.S. government shutdown. The development followed comments from President Donald Trump and comes while the CLARITY Act continues its legislative process.

Govt. Shutdown Odds Rise as CLARITY Act Remains Pending

Polymarket traders indicate that it is 78% certain that the U.S. government will shut down again before the end of January. The chances of this event have, however, jumped by 69% in the past 24 hours. The jump in probability comes in response to stagnant budget talks, which could affect legislative calendars related to the CLARITY Act.

President Donald Trump said the U.S. could “probably” end up in another Democrat shutdown during a Fox Business interview. However, in an X post, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also issued a comment on the appropriations bill being discussed.

According to him, Senate Democrats would not “provide the votes to proceed” if the bill includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security. This is in reference to the terms being set for advancing the bill.

DHS Criticism, Legislative Delays, and Industry Reaction

The senator also criticized the provisions relating to the Department of Homeland Security. Schumer said that the bill is “woefully inadequate” to curb abuses by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement department. Schumer declared that he will not vote for the bill if it is put to a vote in its present form.

Reports out of Minneapolis surfaced Saturday morning. U.S. federal agents fatally shot a 37-year-old man in an incident. Schumer cited the case in his reference to the DHS.

However, in recent months, the progress of the CLARITY Act has faced delays. Previous delays in the CLARITY Act’s progress were largely attributed to the U.S. government shutdown in October and November. That shutdown lasted 43 days, making it the longest on record.

As CoinGape reported, on Jan. 15, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong withdrew support for the current version of the bill. He explained that “We’d rather have no bill than a bad bill. Hopefully we can all get to a better draft.”

Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, noted in a report that there is uncertainty when it comes to stablecoin yields. Banking lobby groups in the U.S. argue yield-bearing stablecoins can harm banking competitiveness.

Thorn said that at this point, there are no substantial indications that lawmakers have reached a compromise. “The additional 4-6 weeks until a second attempt at markup should give the parties more time to work on that.”

Market activities remained cautious. The price of Bitcoin was affected by the unfolding political events. As CoinGape reported earlier, Trump issued a warning to Canada, which could lead to a 100% tariff. The warning was issued in case Canada strengthened its trade relationship with China.