Breaking: U.S. PCE Inflation Rises To 2.8%, Bitcoin Falls

The September U.S. PCE inflation data came in line with expectations, further strengthening the case for a rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. The Bitcoin price rose on the release of the inflation report, breaking above the psychological $90,000 level, but has since fallen to new intraday lows following the brief rally.

PCE Inflation Comes In At 2.8%, Bitcoin Rises

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data show that PCE inflation rose to 2.8% year-over-year (YoY) in September, in line with expectations. It rose to 0.3% month-over-month (MoM), also in line with expectations.

Meanwhile, the core inflation data came in at 2.8% YoY, below expectations of 2.9% and down from the 2.9% recorded in the previous month, while inflation rose to 0.2% MoM, in line with expectations. Notably, the headline inflation is at its highest since October 2023.

The PCE inflation data is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge and indicates that inflation remains sticky and well above the U.S. central bank’s 2% target. However, with the inflation report coming in line with expectations, this is likely to lock down a 25 basis points (bps) cut at next week’s FOMC meeting.

The Bitcoin price climbed on the back of the PCE release, rising from below $90,000 to as high as $91,000. The flagship crypto notably fell below $90,000 just before the inflation report, having recorded an intraday high of around $93,000.

The BTC price reached as high as $94,000 earlier this week as the market anticipates a third rate cut this year at next week’s meeting. A CoinGape market analysis indicated that Bitcoin could break above $100,000 as a rate cut now looks more than likely. The flagship crypto had notably reached new all-time highs (ATHs) prior to the rate cuts in September and October earlier this year.

Rate Cut Odds Fall Slightly To 87%

CME FedWatch data shows that the odds of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut fell slightly to 87% amid the release of the PCE inflation data. The odds of a 25 bps cut had climbed to as high as 90% earlier in the week following the release of the ADP November job report.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin and the crypto market have sharply dropped following the brief rally on the back of the inflation report. The odds of the flagship crypto dropping to $80,000 have now crossed 40% after it fell below $90,000.

CoinGlass data shows that $270 million has been liquidated from the crypto market in the last four hours. $240 million of these liquidations were long positions, while $29 million were short positions.