US Fed Rate Cut in Focus, Will Bitcoin (BTC) Breakout In August?
Highlights
- FOMC meeting on July 31 could chart the next major directional move in Bitcoin.
- CME data shows 96% chances of no rate cuts in August and 85% chance of 25 bps rate cut in September.
- Historically, the Bitcoin price has remained flat throughout August, but election calendar could bring some surprise.
Following a successful Bitcoin conference last weekend, this week will be crucial for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market as the US Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision on July 31. The Bitcoin price is showing strength, trading nearly 15% up on the monthly chart and moving closer to $70,000.
Will Bitcoin Price Breakout In August?
Investors will be keenly watching the Fed’s stand on interest rate cuts at the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 31. As per the CME data, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in the next Fed meeting is 96%, however, the probability of 25 bps rate cuts in September is 85.8%. Apart from the Federal Reserve, the UK Central Bank will also announce its rate cut decision this week.
As per data from 10x Research, it would be too early to expect a Bitcoin price breakout in August. It noted that Bitcoin returns tend to be usually flat during the month of August and go down further in September.
However, it adds that tailwinds provided by the US election calendar, interest rate policy, and lower inflation could provide downside pressure with $1 billion of token unlocks scheduled for August. Also, Bitcoin dominance would continue to make new highs this cycle with notable implications, said 10x Research.
Although analysts are predicting an eventual breakout above $70,000, Bitcoin could need further macro help in terms of another round of lower inflation and projected Fed rate cuts, in order to trigger the upward rally. The US CPI report is scheduled for August 20.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Dips to $67K Despite Pro-Crypto Remarks from Trump, More Correction Ahead?
Analyst Predicts Gold Silver to Rally Post FOMC Meeting
While Bitcoin has shown strength over the past two weeks, precious metals like Gold and Silver have stayed largely reluctant in the rally. However, some market analysts believe that August will be the month for metals. Popular commodities analyst Rasha Hajiyev writes:
“Silver could shot up to $35 in 2-3 weeks from present price level. This would constitute 25%. Which means gold could rally to $2,600 plus. Expect a wild August in metals”.
Along with Bitcoin, Solana has been showing the most strength in the altcoin space with the SOL price rallying to $192 as of press time. Investors are keenly expecting a surge past $200 in the near term.
Also Read: VanEck Teases Solana ETF Again As SOL Surpasses BNB for 4th Spot
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