US Jobs Data: Bitcoin Falls to $66K as Wall Street Sees Rise in Nonfarm Payrolls

Bitcoin plunges to $66K levels as crypto traders brace for critical US jobs and unemployment rate data release on Wednesday. US dollar and Treasury yields waver as Wall Street expects a rise in US Nonfarm payrolls, which could erase the odds of a Fed rate cut in June.

Market participants are closely watching as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is finally set to release the January jobs report today, after a slight delay due to the recent government shutdown.

Wall Street Estimates on US Jobs Data

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the January Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate on February 11. This jobs data release could significantly impact Bitcoin price and crypto market direction in the coming weeks.

Wall Street economists estimated that the United States added 70,000 Nonfarm payrolls in January, reinforcing signs of cooling labor market conditions. However, it is up from 50,000 additions in December.

Fewer layoffs in some seasonal industries has lead to US job growth as the labor market remains sluggish, Reuters reported. Estimates ranged from a loss of 10,000 jobs to a gain of 135,000 positions. Some private surveys have suggested job losses in January.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.4%. Average hourly earnings are also expected to rise 0.3% for the month, with the annual rate sliding to 3.6%. Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market could pare further gains if the actual jobs data show a rise in payrolls.

JP Morgan Securities, Wells Fargo, UBS, and Citigroup see higher-than-estimated Nonfarm payrolls. However, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Asset Management, and Morgan Stanley expect a lower-than-expected release.

Fed Rate Cut Odds Can Slip on Higher Jobs Data

The BLS will also incorporate its annual benchmark payroll revisions. The agency last year estimated the economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March 2025 than previously estimated. However, economists expected the downgrade to be in the 750,000-900,000 range.

Higher-than-expected nonfarm payrolls will reduce expectations of a Fed rate cut in the coming months. CME FedWatch tool shows almost 50% odds of another 25 bps Fed rate cut in June.

Meanwhile, the Fed officials remain divided on rate cuts. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett on Monday warned of lower job gains in the months ahead because of slower labor force growth. Trump hopes his Fed Chair pick Kevin Warsh will start cutting rates soon after taking office.

The US dollar index (DXY) slips to 96.61 ahead of jobs data, hitting a six-month high as investors closely watch the key jobs report. Also, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.133% after a weaker-than-expected retail sales increased bets that the Fed will lower rates this year.

Bitcoin Falls 3% to $66K Levels

Bitcoin price has pared some gains over the past 24 hours, with the price currently trading at $66,898. The 24-hour low and high are $66,561 and $69,954, respectively.

Top altcoins Ethereum (ETH), XRP, BNB, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) also tumbled 3-5% ahead of the key Nonfarm payrolls jobs data. Meanwhile, Binance founder CZ echoes Anthony Scaramucci and Michael Saylor on buying crypto and bitcoin rather than selling amid market downturn.

Analysts such as Ted Pillows highlighted that BTC price is trading near the support zone. This needs to hold otherwise, Bitcoin could drop towards last week’s low of $60K.

Market research platform Kaiko pointed out that the recent drawdown triggered $9 billion in liquidations and pushed stablecoin dominance above 10%. However, the decline in trading volume signals retail disengagement, not panic.