US Shutdown: Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver Rally as Govt. Shutdown Odds Jump to 85% on Polymarket

Amid high chances of a US shutdown from October 1, hedge assets like Bitcoin, Gold and Silver have continued to rally today. US is currently on the edge of a government shutdown as Republicans and Democrats clash over healthcare and federal spending. Polymarket data shows that the odds of the shutdown have surged to 85%.

How Will US Shutdown Affect Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin

The U.S. government faces a potential shutdown on October 1 if Congress fails to pass a budget deal. Historically, the S&P 500 tends to weaken in the week leading up to such deadlines, raising concerns across both traditional and digital asset markets. Furthermore, a US shutdown could also put the crypto ETF approvals in limbo.

A shutdown would trigger a data blackout, halting the release of key economic reports such as jobs and CPI. This could further prevent the Federal Reserve from making fresh inputs for policy decisions. Regulatory agencies like the SEC and CFTC would also operate with reduced staff, delaying IPOs, approvals, and reviews of crypto ETF applications.

Crypto market analysts warn of a short-term dip in both US equities and cryptocurrencies, as risk-off sentiment would gain momentum, amid the macro uncertainty. Thus, high-beta assets like BTC, ETH, and altcoins could potentially see heightened volatility. Last week, the crypto market liquidations soared to over $1 billion twice in a week. Historical data shows that US shutdown has triggered short-term pain, before triggering an upside rally.

During the U.S. government shutdown from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, the Bitcoin price declined. However, shortly after the shutdown ended, the cryptocurrency began a notable upward move.

On the other hand, the Gold rally has continued, hitting the highs of $3872 per ounce on Monday, September 29, thereby extending its year-to-date gains to 50%. The speed of the surge shows that the yellow metal could soon be heading to $4,000. At the same time, the Silver price shot all the way to $47, hitting a 14-year high as risk-off sentiment picks up.

Polymarket Data Shows 85% Odds of Shutdown

In a press briefing on Monday, US Vice President JD Vance said: “I think we are headed for a shutdown.” Soon after, the odds of US shutdown on decentralized platform Polymarket shot up to 85%, after surging by 13% in a day.

Popular analyst Amit Investing sees two possible outcomes. The first is that the market may react with a sharp 5% decline, potentially offering a buy-the-dip opportunity. Alternatively, the market could remain largely unfazed, focusing instead on corporate earnings scheduled to begin in two weeks.