Why Is Len Sassaman Polymarket Odds Dropping Ahead HBO Satoshi Nakamoto Reveal?

Odds for Len Sassaman being the real Satoshi Nakamoto have dropped below 30% on Polymarket.

However, this happened in the last few hours on Saturday. Before, the odds were overwhelming that Sassaman would be the most likely candidate to be unmasked as the entity behind the Bitcoin pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, with 55% of the bets. Why did the percentage suddenly drop?

Doubts Cast on Len Sassaman as Bitcoin Creator

It seems that not all people in the crypto community are convinced Len Sassaman is the real Satoshi. One of the biggest skeptics is his widow, whose statements recently went public again three years later.

Sassaman’s wife has publicly dismissed the notion that her late husband could be Satoshi Nakamoto. She has expressed skepticism despite his deep involvement in cryptography and privacy technologies. The widow also stated that Sassaman wasn’t behind Bitcoin’s invention.

Mrs. Meredith Patterson, therefore, responded to published claims suggesting he could be the real Satoshi Nakamoto.

She said:

“It’s a very well-researched and respectful article, but to the best of my knowledge, Len was not Satoshi.”

She acknowledged the piece’s value, particularly its exploration of history and conclusions about mental health. Still, she firmly believed that her late husband was not behind Bitcoin’s creation.

This contrasts with the growing speculation around his potential role, especially with his death coinciding with Satoshi’s disappearance. However, those closest to him seem unconvinced of any direct connection.

It seems these tweets inspired the Founder and CEO of Alphracta, Joao Wedson, who researched some of Sassaman’s old tweets. In these tweets, Sassaman claims he didn’t analyze Bitcoin and that it is overhyped. After Wedson’s tweet was published, the odds on Polymarket quickly went south.

Len Sassaman is not Satoshi Nakamoto. Don't take this hype too seriously! Meanwhile, Solana developers are creating shitcoins and laundering money.
😵‍💫 pic.twitter.com/4I0wgjdcru

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) October 5, 2024

$2.4M Bet on Satoshi’s Identity in HBO Documentary

The polymarket pool has reached over $$2,397,809 as of Oct.5 and is based upon the upcoming documentary Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery, which is set to premiere next week.

The film, directed by Cullen Hoback, has sparked rumors that Nakamoto’s identity may be revealed, a rumor neither HBO nor the director himself has denied. Teasers, promotional materials, and reports last week suggested there may be some big reveal. At first, Polymarket had Len Sassaman as the most likely candidate for Satoshi Nakamoto, with 51% of people believing the documentary would show that.

Len Sassaman was a cryptographer who significantly contributed to PGP encryption, remailer technology, and cryptography. He worked alongside figures like David Chaum and Hal Finney, whose research helped shape Bitcoin’s creation.

Len Sassaman’s deep ties to the Cypherpunk movement and his advocacy for privacy technologies closely align with Bitcoin’s ethos. Notably, the Bitcoin blockchain contains a tribute to Sassaman, further linking him to the cryptocurrency’s origins.

His untimely death in 2011 coincided with Satoshi Nakamoto’s sudden disappearance, sparking connection theories.

After Years of False Leads, Will HBO Unmask Satoshi?

If HBO actually has the investigative clout to reveal Satoshi Nakamoto’s true identity, that will finally solve a mystery hanging over Bitcoin since its inception. Previous efforts by journalists to unmask Satoshi have failed.

Goodacre is currently an investigative reporter for Newsweek. In 2014, she wrote a story called “The Face Behind Bitcoin,” naming Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto, a Japanese-American man living in California, as the founder of Bitcoin. Dorian Nakamoto denied involvement with Bitcoin, saying he had never even heard of the currency. It was soon discovered that the story was false.

The following year, tech publication WIRED ran an article – which has since undergone significant revision – suggesting that Australian computer scientist Craig Wright may be Bitcoin’s creator. Wright quickly leveraged the media attention, giving interviews to outlets like the BBC, The Economist, and GQ, in which he also made claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto. Within weeks, however, his story started to fall apart.

It was soon discovered that Wright, a shady entrepreneur, made the whole story up. Many speculated that this had something to do with his current legal problems with the Australian Tax Office and an attempt to make money by copyrighting Bitcoin’s white paper and raising his profile.

The most regularly named candidates to be Satoshi Nakamoto include famous personas, namely: the deceased computer programmer Hal Finney, who lived a few blocks away from Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto and died in 2014; Nick Szabo, one of the inventors of Bit Gold; Adam Back, inventor of Hash Cash; and Wei Dai, inventor of b-money.

All of the above have denied being the phantom Bitcoin creator. Less conventional theories say that it was a former programmer and cartel leader, Paul Le Roux, who is currently in prison, or even the CIA. Yet others said it wasn’t an individual at all but a group of developers under the pseudonym Satoshi. It’s up to see if it is Len Sassaman or some other persona or group HBO finds legit Satoshi.