Will Bitcoin Reverse to $115K Max Pain Price amid Crypto Options Expiry Today?

Bitcoin surges above $120K following massive capital inflows into the crypto market in response to the U.S. government shutdown. Traders are bracing for huge volatility due to crypto options expiry, as the max pain for Bitcoin and Ethereum is way below the current market prices.

Watch Out for $3.36 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry Today

Almost 28K BTC options with a notional value of $3.36 billion are set to expire on the Deribit derivatives crypto exchange today, October 3. The put-call ratio of 1.13 signals a higher volume of put options compared to call options, indicating bearish sentiment.

In the last 24 hours, the put-call ratio has climbed to 0.91. This confirms traders are leaning towards a market decline or hedging against a fall.

Bitcoin max pain price is at $115K, significantly below the current market price of $120,370. Glassnode revealed options are clustered between $100K and $120K, with the highest call interest at $120K.

Rising inflows into ETFs and slowing LTH sell pressure have provided stability, with Bitcoin holding support at the STH realized cost basis. The September crypto options expiry has reset sentiments as open interest rebuilds, volume eases, and flows tilt toward cautious Q4 upside.

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Surpasses Deribit in Bitcoin Options

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF surpassed Deribit to become the largest venue for BTC options last week. This came following $23 billion crypto options expired last week, with BTC open interest on the Nasdaq-listed IBIT reaching nearly $38 billion as compared to $32 billion on Deribit.

Investors and analysts are now paying closer attention to the BTC options market. BTC options on Deribit and IBIT are now approaching $80 billion on a notional basis.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shared a breakdown of options open interest by issuer, with IBIT dominating significantly. “Options tends to be more winner take all vs ETF AUM which is more spread around,” he added.

$966 Million Ethereum Options to Expire

Over 216K Ethereum options with a notional value of $966.51 million are set to expire on Deribit, with a put-call ratio of 0.93. This slightly bearish put-call ratio indicates traders are anticipating downside amid rising volatility.

In the last 24 hours, the call volume was significantly higher than the put volume, with a put-call ratio of 0.50. It shows that traders are more confident about further upside as they buy more call options.

Moreover, the max pain price is at $4,200, higher than the current market price of $4,508 at the time of writing. This signals higher odds of a drop in ETH price, but the odds of a sudden drop are extremely low due to crypto options expiry.