XRP Prepares for Phase 4 Lift-Off, $21.5 Level in Focus

After months of volatility, Ripple’s XRP token is showing signs of life, as the broader crypto market recovers. While the current surge has caught widespread attention, some believe that the real rally is still building behind the scenes, with a much stronger breakout potentially ahead.

XRP’s Phase 4 Rally Could Be Just Getting Started

According to crypto investor and CryptoQuant author CW, the XRP token is entering the Phase 4 rally. As the altcoin prepares for its next big move, the market expert keeps the target at an ambitious high of $21.5.

The trader cites in an X post that XRP is currently in the fourth stage of a long-term, 4-phase market cycle that has its origin in mid-2017. As Phase 4 typically shows the token’s bullish stage, CW remains confident of the Ripple token’s potential rally.

Currently, the XRP price is recorded at $1.43, with a significant increase of nearly 6% in a single day. Despite a 23% monthly dip, the altcoin has soared by about 2% over the past seven days. This upward trend, together with the Phase 4 projection, has sparked a fresh ray of hope among investors.

However, it is worth noting that this positive trend comes hot on the heels of XRP’s largest realized loss since 2022. As CoinGape reported, the number of realized losses spiked to about 908 million in a week.

From Correction to Rally: What’s Next?

As per the three-week chart presented by the trader, XRP is still facing a small loss. However, the drastic slowdown in the decline to just 0.52% has sparked widespread enthusiasm. The analyst believes that this red candle will soon turn green, marking the beginning of the Phase-4 rally. A momentum indicator on the chart may also form a “golden cross,” further supporting the potential uptrend.

Analyzing XRP’s current market cycle, it is understood that the altcoin has been moving through the 4th phase since May 2017. Phase 1 began when XRP saw a correction from $0.39, before surging to $3.30 in January 2018. 

Phase two was marked when the token slipped from $3.30, bottoming out at $0.1140 in March 2020. This downturn was succeeded by a surge to $1.96 in April 2021, marking the end of Phase 2. At the beginning of Phase 3, the altcoins saw another correction, trading between $0.50 and $0.60 until November 2024.

Phase 4 started when the token bounced back from the $0.50-$0.60 range, climbing to $3.40 in January 2025. After a brief pullback, the altcoin surged again to a high of $3.60 in July 2025. Soon, XRP saw a significant correction, resulting in the current downtrend.

If the current momentum continues as the analyst believes, XRP could soon break out of its negative zone. This could set the stage for a stronger rally in the coming months, with even bold highs like $21 could be expected.