Crypto Market Brace for Volatility Ahead of Today’s U.S. CPI Data Release – What to Expect

The crypto market could see some price fluctuations ahead of the release of the major U.S. CPI data later today.  Inflation figures often influence the financial markets as experts hope this pushes the market away from its downturn.

Crypto Market Tensions Rise Ahead of U.S. CPI Data

The crypto market has been struggling to take any sort of direction during trading sessions in recent days. For example, during the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has been ranging between $86,000 and $90,000.

Traders say uncertainty has grown due to the lack of recent inflation data. This is due to the government shutdown, which delayed the release of the October CPI report. Today’s U.S. CPI data for November will offer the first reading on the trends in over six weeks.

Consensus expectations are for the CPI to come in at  3.1% for the headline rate and same for core inflation as well. This is well above the Fed’s 2% target rate.

September’s U.S. CPI data shows that inflation is high at the overall level, but the core rate has decreased. This situation makes it hard to predict any interest rate cuts. However, the markets expect at least two cuts in interest rates next year.

If the U.S. CPI data today comes in on the strong side, it could make some Federal Reserve members more likely to push for more cuts. This raises concerns that easing measures may be delayed further.

Economists indicate that the risks at hand are unprecedented in view of recent data disruptions. Mohamed El-Erian, economic advisor to German financial giant Allianz, noted that this CPI release carries extra weight because it restores a missing link in the inflation narrative.

Tomorrow, we get the US CPI inflation print for November. Consensus forecasts currently anticipate a headline reading of 3.1% and a core reading of 3.0%.
This release is highly anticipated, largely because the recent government shutdown-related data disruptions left the Federal… pic.twitter.com/JNVmUE8Wjv

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) December 17, 2025

Analysts will particularly focus on the inflation related to services to look for signs of gaining momentum for disinflation. It is also possible that prices for goods may show whether initial pressures through tariffs are still affecting the economy.

However, another expert, Axel Bitblaze, estimated that a rising unemployment rate is a clear indicator that even as growth is slowing, inflation risks could still remain heightened.

Today’s CPI print is pretty important.

At 8:30am ET, US CPI and Core CPI drop.
Expectations are 3.1% CPI and 3.0% Core.

A few days ago, unemployment came in at 4.6%, the highest in 4 years.

That already tells us growth is slowing and jobs are getting hit.

If CPI comes in at… pic.twitter.com/Fy3HC4ZY57

— Axel Bitblaze 🪓 (@Axel_bitblaze69) December 18, 2025

What Other Events Could Drive Crypto Market Moves?

Markets are also watching the rate decision of the Bank of Japan tomorrow. If any tight policies are announced, this could have a subsequent effect on the crypto market or others.

However, it is currently evident that investors have already started de-risking. The fact that there have been continuous outflows in U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs has pulled down one of the strongest pillars of institutional demand.

Ethereum along with large altcoins has witnessed sharp falls, while meme coins too have declined as a result of less speculative interest. Also, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has moved back to “extreme fear” levels.