Crypto Market Continues to Plunge, Could 2026 Be the Worst Year?

The crypto market has opened 2026 with a sharp selloff that has erased billions in value across major digital assets. Since January, broad profit-taking and macro pressure have pushed Bitcoin and altcoins lower, driving extreme fear across traders. Bitcoin is trading at $75,276, down 18.85% in a month.

Crypto Market Metrics Show 2026’s Bad Start

The crypto market began 2026 near $2.95 trillion in total capitalization, but it has now fallen to roughly $2.54 trillion. That decline is a year-to-date wipeout of around $410 billion, as risk-off sentiment spread across markets.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to extreme fear at 14, near its 2025 low of 10. The steep decline has coincided with Bitcoin breaking key support zones and dragging broader sentiment down.

Bitcoin’s decline has also erased gains made after Donald Trump’s election victory. The asset hit an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, but it is now down about 40% from that peak. Glassnode reported that 44% of Bitcoin’s supply is now underwater. At the same time, supply in profit dropped sharply from 78% to 56%, with buyers near the peak now holding losses.

However, selling pressure also intensified as Bitcoin fell below $76,000, which is the average cost basis for Strategy’s holdings. This dip has also led to MSTR stock’s decline in the past few days. That dip led to about $2.56 billion in liquidations in recent days, adding to the downside momentum.

Tax Reporting Shock Adds Pressure 

Beyond price action, regulatory and compliance developments have also added stress to traders. Analyst Lark Davis warned that the IRS will increase scrutiny in 2026 through new reporting requirements.

Davis said U.S. exchanges will report digital asset sales directly to the IRS using the new 1099-DA form. According to him, Coinbase, Kraken, and other platforms will send trade data to authorities.

He also noted that traders must still calculate and prove the cost basis for each transaction. Davis added that crypto-to-crypto swaps count as taxable events, which many traders reportedly misunderstand. Meanwhile, QCP Broadcast said Bitcoin positioning de-risked into the decline, as open interest compressed and funding flipped negative.

Bitwise CIO on Crypto Winter

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said the market has been in a “full-blown winter” since January 2025. He pointed to Bitcoin being down 39% from its October high and Ethereum falling 53%.

Hougan said institutional ETF and digital asset treasury buying masked deeper damage across the broader market. He said ETFs and treasury buyers purchased over 744,000 Bitcoin worth about $75 billion during the period.

He also outlined sharp performance gaps between assets with institutional demand and those without it. Hougan said Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices fell 10% to 20% in 2025, while unsupported tokens dropped over 60%.

However, he noted that crypto winters typically last about 13 months from peak to trough. Based on his timeline starting in January 2025, Hougan said the market may already be near that historical duration. He added that markets often ignore regulatory and adoption news during late-stage downturns. Hougan said crypto winters typically end in exhaustion, not excitement.