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Highlights
- Bitcoin price is currently consolidating around $64,000.
- A panic selloff is expected by dumb money if the BTC price loses stability and dips further.
- The PCE data is also expected next week, which could lead to higher volatility in the market.
The Bitcoin (BTC) price is facing significant downward pressure. As of now, BTC trades at around $64,000 remaining stagnant amid the unfavorable market conditions. Whilst, analysts are concerned about dumb money invading the territory and pushing the Bitcoin price lower.
Dumb Money Vs BTC
According to IntoTheBlock data, about 5.45 million addresses have accumulated 3.03 million BTC between the range of $64,300 and $70,800. Hence, this large concentration of Bitcoin at high prices forms a significant supply barrier. If the Bitcoin price continues to drop, these holders or dumb money traders might sell to limit their losses. This could eventually intensify the downward pressure.
For context, dumb money refers to the individual or retail investors who act emotionally and are less informed about the market trends. These traders are subject to panic selling during a downturn. Moreover, this selloff trend has already been noted for Bitcoin when the price extended below $67,000.
Meanwhile, dormant Bitcoin wallets have been notably active this week. As Bitcoin price dipped below $65,000, an on-chain analyst revealed that a single Bitcoin wallet moved 25,000 BTC in six separate transactions. In addition, this movement added to the market’s anxiety.
The Bitcoin Spend Output Age Bands data shows that this wallet’s BTC, aged between 3 to 5 years, could be gearing up for a selloff as market sentiment turns pessimistic. Furthermore, the coming week is critical for the crypto market. Bitcoin and altcoins are under heavy selling pressure.
Over the past month, Bitcoin has fallen 10%, while altcoins have dropped by 20-30%. Additionally, 104,000 BTC options, worth $6.72 billion, are set to expire on Friday, June 28, 2024. With a put-call ratio of 0.52 and a max pain point at $57,000, the Bitcoin price is expected to remain under selling pressure.
Also Read: Crypto Market: PCE Inflation & Key Events To Shape Investors Sentiment This Week
What’s Next For Bitcoin Price?
Traders are also bracing for the U.S. GDP growth rate data on Thursday and the Fed’s preferred inflation data, the PCE inflation data, on Friday. These coincide with the significant BTC options expiry. Moreover, this overlap could lead to increased volatility and potential price drops below $60,000, possibly even hitting $57,000.
Adding to the pressure are substantial Bitcoin ETF outflows, exceeding $500 million in the past week. Furthermore, the German government has been sending large amounts of BTC from its holdings to exchanges, increasing market supply.
However, despite the ongoing selloff, more than 87% of Bitcoin holders are still in profit. This indicates that there is room for further profit-booking, which could drive prices down further. Market analysts believe that Bitcoin price consolidation may continue until the end of summer 2024. Hence, a new bull run might begin around September, with major activity expected around the U.S. elections.
Another key factor to watch is the PCE price release next Friday for May. A decline in core PCE already suggests downside risks for the index. Thus, weak retail sales may also contribute to this trend, though personal income could see an improvement.
One positive sign is the reduction in Bitcoin exchange balances. In the last 30 days, over 107,000 BTC have exited crypto exchanges, which could lead to a supply crunch. The recent Bitcoin halving event also reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC, limiting new BTC creation and helping to keep supply in check.
Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve took a hawkish stance on rate cuts despite cooling inflation data. This caused a selloff, with over $4 billion worth of Bitcoin sold by whales and miners. However, if the Fed does cut rates, some analysts believe BTC could reach $100,000 by the end of the year.
In a post on X, Rekt Capital, popular crypto analyst, wrote, “Strong rejection from this Lower High resistance yesterday to precede extra downside today. Bitcoin isn’t ready to end its June downtrend just yet. But this is still the downtrend line to watch for a break once Bitcoin is ready to reverse to the upside.” His analysis suggests further downtrend for BTC in the short term.
Also Read: Block CEO Jack Dorsey Says Bitcoin Can Replace US Dollar
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