NewsletterBloomberg Analysts Up U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds To 75%
Following the Grayscale lawsuit judgment against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), analysts expect the United States to have a higher chance of getting approval for the country’s first ever spot Bitcoin ETF.
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Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Chances Rise
In a significant development, two Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart revealed the improved chances of approval for the spot ETF in the United States. This comes after the US Court ruling on August 29, 2023, granting the Grayscale motion to convert the company’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF. Earlier, Balchunas stated that the chances of spot ETF approval now reached 75% in 2023, which means the odds are more for the nod than not. He tweeted:
“James Seyffart and I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this year (95% by end of ’24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w “very little wiggle room.”
Further, the analyst left little room for the ETF approval to drag into the later stages of the year 2024. Hence, the new developments could most likely fall just in time for a massive Bitcoin BTC price rally before the crucial Bitcoin Halving event in the second quarter of 2024. The analysts further said that the US SEC could likely fall short of justifying more and more denials of the spot ETF applications. “The agency will struggle to justify further denials as it faces deadlines,” Balchunas added.
Grayscale Win Accelerates Bitcoin ETF Race
On the other side, big financial institutions of the likes of Blackrock and Fidelity are vying for obtaining the first ever spot BTC ETF from the federal regulatory agency. Following the Grayscale victory in the lawsuit, the crypto community is unanimously bullish of a higher chance of the ETF approval soon.
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