BTC Price Forecast: Signs Bitcoin Is Suffering From Post-Halving Hangover?

BTC price forecast: Bitcoin has made significant strides since dropping to test support at $56,500 this week. The sell-off which erased all post-halving gains, affected altcoins in the same way, with Ethereum sliding to seek support at $2,800. Most industry experts and crypto enthusiasts say that Bitcoin may be suffering from the aftermath of the halving in April on top of external challenges like inflation and investor withdrawal symptoms.

What Does Post Bitcoin Halving Hangover Mean?

Bitcoin halving occurred on May 20. It was the largest cryptocurrency’s third halving cycle. It had an immediate impact on miner rewards, which were slashed to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC. Miner rewards refer to the new coins miners on the network receive for securing the network and validating transactions.

While the impact of halving on Bitcoin price may take time to materialise, miners are already feeling its brunt. Based on the current blockchain fundamentals from CryptoQuant, their selling pressure is already downhill.

Moreover, the drop in Bitcoin price from the post-halving peak above $67,000 is a concern for many miners. Miner capitulation seems to be taking precedence the longer BTC price stays in the red.

The capitulation of miners implies that many are not able to meet their operation costs. Hence, some choose to stop mining activities and sell part of their businesses or entire companies. In other words, miners are significantly underpaid and their profits are reduced by large margins.

According to the Head of Research at CryptoQuant, Julio Moreno, “Bitcoin miners are extremely underpaid right now as daily revenues have plummeted to the lowest since Nov 2022. The miner profit/loss sustainability reached the lowest since June 2021.”

With rewards already slashed, miners will have to reinvent themselves to cope with the current landscape. Efficiency and streaming activities are two of the factors likely to keep mining businesses in operation ahead of the bull market.

BTC Price Forecast: What’s Next For Bitcoin Post-Halving?

The doldrums currently in the market are caused partly by the selling pressure from investors who expected Bitcoin to rally significantly post-halving and those already in profit-seeking to rebalance their portfolios.

At the same time, some are selling in connection with the sticky inflation in the US and the various geopolitical tensions globally.

Persistent Bitcoin ETFs’ outflow volumes pre and post-halving is another factor contributing to the negative outlook of the crypto market. With sentiment falling, confidence also dwindles, explaining the lethargic recovery this week.

Nevertheless, the BTC price forecast shows Bitcoin topping $60,000 and trading at $61,000 during US business hours on Friday. The Recovery of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) from near oversold conditions to 41 backs the renewed bullish momentum.

Should the momentum clear the grey band on the chart and Bitcoin close the day above $62,000 support/resistance, the chances of an extended recovery towards $70,000 will explode.

However, the conservative BTC price forecast places the coin between $60,000  support and $62,000 resistance this weekend. Other key levels to watch out for are the 50-day EMA at $63,830, the 20-day EMA at $63,284, $66,000 and $68,000. Profit-taking can occur in all these areas, further dampening the recovery above the ultimate $70,000 level.