COIN Stock Risks Crashing to $100 as Odds of US Striking Iran Jump

COIN stock price remained in a technical bear market this month as the crypto market crash continued, and after it reported a big loss. It has retreated from the from last year’s high of $443 to the current $162. This retreat may continue as geopolitical risks rise, with odds of a Trump strike on Iran rising.

COIN Stock at Risk as Odds of a Trump Strike on Iran Jump

Coinbase stock price may continue falling to the key support level at $100 in the near term as geopolitical risks rise. Data compiled by Polymarket shows that odds of the US striking Iran by March 31st have jumped to 60%. Similarly, the odds of an attack happening before December 31st jumped to 70%.

These odds rose on Monday after the US ordered non-essential staff in Lebanon to leave the country. The Trump administration has also asked some Americans to vacate other key areas, including Qatar.

More directly, Donald Trump confirmed that he was considering a limited strike on Iran to pressure the leaders to make concessions. Iran has warned that such a move will risk a long war in the region. It has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz and attack US bases in the region.

A war in the Middle East would impact COIN stock price negatively because of the impact on Bitcoin and other altcoins. In most cases, these coins drop when there are substantial geopolitical risks as Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset has largely been invalidated.

A weak crypto market, on the other hand, would lead to weak financials. The most recent results showed that Coinbase reported a big loss and a drop in revenues. Its total revenue dropped to $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter from the $2.17 billion in the same period in 2024. Coinbase reported a net loss of over $666 million.

Coinbase Stock Price Prediction: Technical Analysis 

The three-day chart shows that the Coinbase stock price has come under pressure in the past few months, dropping from a high of $443 to the current $163.

COIN has dropped below the Strong, Pivot, and Reverse of the Murrey Math Lines tool at $187. It also dropped below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average.

Most importantly, it has formed a bearish flag pattern, which is made up of a vertical line and an ascending channel. This pattern often leads to a strong bearish breakdown over time.

Therefore, the most likely COIN stock price forecast is bearish, with the next key target being at $100. A move above the key resistance level at $185 will invalidate the bearish outlook.