Bitcoin and XRP Price Prediction If Strait of Hormuz Opens After US-Iran Ceasefire

Bitcoin and XRP prices jumped on Monday after media reports suggested that the US and Iran were nearing a ceasefire agreement that may ultimately lead to the end of the ongoing war. BTC rose to $70,000, while XRP rose modestly to $1.3500.

Strait of Hormuz Reopening Would be Bullish for Bitcoin and Crypto Prices 

According to Axios and Reuters, Iranian and US officials held in-depth negotiations aimed at ending the ongoing war that has led to thousands of deaths.

The reports suggest that the countries, including Israel, will agree to a 50-day ceasefire that may lead to the end of the war. Such a deal would lead to the stop of fighting and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of all crude oil passes through.

Data on Polymarket shows the odds of traffic through the Strait returning to normal in April rose to 16%, its highest point since last Friday. While this is an improvement, it means that most traders expect the Strait to be closed for much longer.

The full reopening of the Strait would be bullish for Bitcoin, XRP, and other crypto prices because it would lead to lower crude oil and natural gas prices. 

Brent, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI l), and other benchmarks have jumped from below $60 in January to over $100 today. Gasoline and diesel prices have also jumped sharply in the US, raising concerns that inflation will surge.

A drop in oil prices would help to curtail inflation and push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year or in 2027 since the labor market is still in trouble. 

A report released on Friday showed that the US non-farm payrolls rose 176k in March. Still, analysts believe that the job additions were in temporary sectors, especially as the World Cup nears.

Odds of the Strait of Hormuz opening are also slim because Iran is doing well, charging $2 million for a tanker. It is also selling over 1.5 million barrels of oil per day at over $100 per barrel. Before the war, it was selling about 1 million barrels per day for less than $60.

XRP Price Prediction: Technical Analysis 

In theory, a ceasefire between the US and Iran would push the XRP price higher in the coming weeks. However, technicals suggest that the coin may be at risk of more downside in the near term.

The three-day chart shows that the coin recently formed a death cross pattern on March 5. This happened as the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crossed each other.

The token has also slumped below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level at $1.6395. It is also in the process of forming a bearish flag pattern.

Therefore, the token will likely continue falling in the near term, potentially to the psychological level of $1. A deal, however, may see it rebound and move above the key resistance level at $1.6637.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Technical Analysis 

A solid ceasefire would likely trigger a new Bitcoin price bull run that will push it to $100,000. However, the three-day chart points to a strong bearish breakdown in the coming days or weeks.

The coin has formed an ascending channel, which is now part of the bearish flag pattern that started forming in January this year.

Bitcoin sits below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level, while the Supertrend indicator has remained in red for a while.

Therefore, Bitcoin will likely plunge soon, potentially to the key support level at $60,000. A drop below that price will point to more downside, potentially to the key target at $50,000.

Update (7/04/2026)

Odds of a ceasefire faded overnight after Iran sent a 10-point demand of what it wants to achieve. The US, in its part, believes that these demands are highly maximalist.

Trump, on the other hand, has maintained his threats that he will escalate by bombing critical Iranian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants. In his statement on Monday, he said that Iran could be taken out in just four hours, with pundits like Tucker Carlson warning of a potential nuclear attack. These fears explains why Bitcoin and XRP prices have pulled back today.