What to Expect for Ethereum Price in July Based on Historical Trends

June Month was notably bearish for the cryptocurrency market with many assets revisiting their monthly support. Amid the market sell-off, the Ethereum price plunged from a high of $3887 to a low of $3232 registering a loss of 16.9%. However, the downfall lies within the healthy retracement of Fibonacci tools indicating a strong could allow ETH bulls to counterattack.

Also Read: Crypto Market This Week: Ethereum ETF, FOMC Minutes, US Job Data & Trade Deficit

Ethereum Price Eyes Stability as 78% of ETH is Held by Long-Term Holders

The near-term trend in Ethereum price is sideways evidenced by a new lower high formation at $3975 in late May. This reversal indicates the overhead supply is high from market sellers and ETH buyers would need time to recuperate its momentum.

Connecting the overhead peaks with a trendline reveals a potential triangle formation as the altcoin has also received dynamic support from an ascending trendline since October 2023.

The Ethereum price currently trades at $3389 and holds a market cap of $407.3 Billion. If the supply pressure persists, the coin price could plunge another 5% to seek support at the long-coming trendline.

The renewed buying pressure from the trendline could uplift the asset by 14-15% and challenge the triangle’s upper boundary at $3860. A bullish breakout from the triangle pattern will signal a better confirmation of uptrend continuation.

Also Read: ETH/BTC Pair Poised for Breakout as Ethereum ETF Launch Approaches: What’s Next?

In a recent tweet, the prominent crypto analytics firm IntoTheBlock revealed a striking statistic: 78% of Ether is currently held by long-term holders. Despite the volatility in Ethereum’s price, the proportion of ETH held by long-term investors has steadily increased, indicating a strong belief in the asset’s future value.

78% of ETH is owned by long-term hodlers pic.twitter.com/9vb5kaUIar

— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) June 28, 2024

Ethereum’s price performance in July has exhibited a mix of gains and declines over the past several years, reflecting the broader market’s volatility and investor sentiment. The biggest gain was +56.62% in 2022, while the largest drop was -27.29% in 2017.

On average, July has a positive return of +6.95%, though the median return is -4.41%, indicating mixed performance.

However, with the ongoing development around U.S-listed Ethereum ETFs, anticipated to launch around mid-July, the odds strongly lean on buyers’ favor.

Technical Indicator

• BB Indicator: An upswing in the lower boundary of the Bollinger Band indicator losing bearish momentum and additional support for buyers to rebound.
• Moving Average Convergence Divergence: A negative crossover between the MACD and signal line highlights the near-term trend is intact and bearish.