Crypto Whale “Spice” Bets $1.3M on No Interest Rate Change: Is the Fed Decision Already Priced In?
Highlights
- Crypto Whale Spice placed a bold $1.3M bet on Fed decision, due July 31.
- Spice confident that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged, resonating with most experts.
- The crypto market's performance today reveals investors’ cautious approach ahead of the FOMC meeting.
The Federal Reserve will begin its two-day-long FOMC meeting today, exciting a crypto whale, Spice. As the Fed would gather to make prominent decisions on interest rates and other monetary policies, financial investors all around the world are eyeing the result. Notably, many are even betting on the potential decision; Spice put a $1.3M bet.
Crypto Whale Spice Predicts Fed Decision With $1.3M Bet
Although the FOMC meeting starts today, the decision will come tomorrow, July 31. Ahead of the decision, a crypto whale known by the pseudonym Spice has bet a staggering $1.3M on the decision.
Lookonchain reported the Polymarket data today, revealing that the individual has placed multiple bets on the ‘no interest rate change.’ Interestingly, the bets were made at different intervals and time periods, showcasing consistent belief in unchanged rates.
- Source: Polymarket, Spice’s $1.3M Bet
Notably, Spice has also put money on Thailand striking Cambodia by Friday.
Fed Decision Priced In, Will They Cut?
Not only this crypto whale, but also many other users have allegedly put bets on platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and others. Notably, most experts have anticipated unchanged interest rates (4.25%–4.5% range) in this July 31 Fed decision, with 97.9% probability of ‘no change’ on the CME FedWatch Tool and a similar level on other platforms as well.
- Source: CME FedWatch Tool, Fed Decision Odds
Although investors are aware of the potential decision, tension is building. Two Fed governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, are still advocating for potential rate cuts. A few other experts, like BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder, have also called for cuts, emphasizing their positive impact on mortgage and inflation.
Crypto experts like Mister Crypto also added the possibility since U.S. President Donald Trump is pressuring Powell and more. Overall, the majority anticipate no interest rate hike or cut, but the uncertainty still looms.
The 🇺🇸 Fed’s 2% target has been met.
RATE CUTS ARE COMING! pic.twitter.com/ywBHwRLmaM
— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) July 29, 2025
What does this mean for the Crypto Market?
The FOMC meeting’s decision is bringing significant volatility to the crypto market today. All the digital assets, including BTC, ETH, and the rest, are witnessing a downtrend due to uncertainty around the Fed decision and the White House crypto policy report.
Now, the Fed decision can bring volatility depending on Jerome Powell’s conference. However, the impact will be potentially limited since expectations are already priced in, but unchanged rates would bring significant profit to this crypto whale, Spice.
CoinGape experts also note that a dovish Fed could spark bullish rallies, whereas a hawkish tone could influence a downtrend.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What are the odds of the Fed rate cuts this July?
2. Will the crypto whale profit on this bet?
3. Will the Fed’s decision affect the crypto market?
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