Breaking: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Come In At 199K as Odds of January Fed Rate Cut Fall to 13%

The U.S. initial jobless claims have again come in lower than expectations, hinting at a potential rebound in the labor market. This development comes as the odds of a January Fed rate cut fall to new lows, which is a negative for the crypto market, as rate cuts this year fueled notable runs for Bitcoin.

Initial Jobless Claims Come In At 199k as Fed Rate Cut Odds Fall

Department of Labor data show that initial claims for the week ending December 27 were 199,000, down 16,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This figure was also below expectations of 219,000, hinting at a rebound in the labor market. The continuing claims were 1,866,000, below expectations of 1,902,000 and 1,913,000 recorded in the previous week.

CoinGape reported last week that the initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 were 214,000. However, the Department of Labor noted that they revised this figure up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000.

This development is significant as the weakness in the labor market this year prompted three Fed rate cuts from the FOMC. A drop in the jobless claims strengthens the case for the Fed to hold off on further rate cuts for a while, as some officials judged, according to the FOMC minutes.

However, the drop in these unemployment claims may simply be due to the holiday season. Fed Governor Chris Waller has already stated that the current labor market conditions warrant further cuts. Meanwhile, the November jobs data showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, above expectations of 4.5%.

The Bitcoin price has held steady amid the release of the U.S. initial jobless claims. TradingView data shows that the flagship crypto is currently trading at around $88,800, up from an intraday low of around $87,700. However, BTC is still on course to end the year in the red, down almost 6% year-to-date (YTD).

Odds of a January Rate Cut Fall

Polymarket data shows that the odds of a January Fed rate cut have fallen amid the release of the U.S. initial jobless claims. There is now only a 13% chance that the Fed lowers rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the January FOMC meeting.

Meanwhile, there is an 87% chance that the Fed rates will remain unchanged following the meeting. CME Fedwatch data also shows that Wall Street traders are betting that interest rates will remain unchanged.

There is currently an 85% chance that Fed rates will remain unchanged, while a 15% chance that the Fed will lower rates by 25 bps. Although interest rates are likely to remain unchanged in January, most Fed officials have signaled their support for further cuts in inflation declines as expected, according to the FOMC minutes.