Bitcoin [BTC] broke closes above $10,000 on Thursday with a 9.11% rise. The futures price of Bitcoin at CME reached a high at $10,220. The price are back in contango with over $200 premium for June futures prices.
On a daily scale, it broke above the parallel ascending channel it has been forming since the crash 7 weeks ago. BTC is now en-route 7th consecutive positive weekly close.
The nearest target for the rise now stands at the yearly high at $10,550. The area above $10,500-$11,500 is expected to provide resistance until break-out 2019 high at $14,000.
The S&P index moved to a new weekly high at $2911, as it looks to break past resistance around $2950. Gold prices also moved upwards with a 1.75% rise on a daily scale, closing at $1715 on a daily scale. The correlation with gold is what BTC investors have been looking to see. The price action along with Tudor Paul Jones calling out resemblance with 1970s gold market is a strong sentimental indicator as well.
Where Will FOMO Begin?
The RSI on the daily scale has reached the over-bought region at 80, signalling the beginning of FOMO. However, the Open Interest on BitMEX is significantly down after the ‘Black Thursday’ crash. Derivatives trader, Alex tweeted,
Last time $BTC was around $10,000, in February, aggregated open interest was 65% higher and Bitmex $XBT funding was 10 times higher, ticking at a approximately 100% annualized. Leverage in the crypto ecosystem is much lower this time around.
Hence, with a lower leverage, the markets can expect a more organic price action. Moreover, he also notes that it builds up a larger room to the upside before buying FOMO begins, and the correction will be organic as well.
The Open Interest on Okex and BitMEX is $780 and $730 million, respectively. The basis and funding rate on Okex is slightly positive around $3-5 and 0.05%, respectively. The funding rate on BitMEX, on the hand, continues to be slightly negative according to the Neobutane indicator.
The halving is due on Monday around 5: 00 hours UTC, which builds up to another reason for a pullback from the sell-off after the event. Nevertheless, it will take a week or two for the miners to adapt to the change in reward, and the markets can expect huge volatility in the coming weeks.
What do you think will be the swing high levels? Please share your views with us.
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