Is US Losing the War as US-Iran Conflict Ending Before June Turns Elusive

Experts are issuing dire warnings over a potential Bitcoin crash, citing escalating geopolitical tensions and oil prices amid the US-Iran war. Data shows the odds of the ongoing US-Iran conflict extending beyond June surged today. Leading expert claims the US has already lost the Iran war and there is no exit strategy.

US-Iran Conflict Could Extend Beyond May

The odds of the US-Iran conflict ending by May and June have decreased to 61% and 74% today, according to Polymarket data. However, prediction market traders are betting on war extending until December as efforts to de-escalate the situation falter and military deployments continue to mount in the Middle East.

Oil prices are steady at $95 on Friday as the US approved a 30-day waiver to allow countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea to curb rising energy costs. Escalations have overshadowed a coordinated release of oil reserves by major economies.

The US dollar index (DXY) crossed the 100 mark today, raising concerns over rising inflation and uncertainty. Investors away from risk assets such as Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

Polymarket traders see a 47% chance of traffic returning to normal at the Strait of Hormuz by April 30. Prediction markets now reveal lower odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027. The Trump administration estimated the first-week cost of the Iran war at $11.3 billion.

American political scientist John Mearsheimer argues that the United States has already lost the Iran war, with no clear path to a decisive victory or exit. He said “Iranians have an incentive to continue the war to turn it into a protracted war of attrition. And they have the means to do that. So the question then is how does President Trump get Iran to agree to settle this war?”

Trump wants an off-ramp but can’t find one, as Iran refused talks and can escalate by targeting Gulf infrastructure and oil flows, harming the global economy. As political pressure builds on Trump, he even told G7 leaders in a virtual call that Iran was “about to surrender,” Axios reported.

Bitcoin to Crash Ahead?

Kevin Steuer, in a recent interview on The David Lin Report, highlighted three key signals for market panic. These are oil breaching $100 per barrel, VIX spiking above 30, and escalating Middle-East conflicts.

Steuer noted Bitcoin is forming a potential bottom, but it depends on the US-Iran conflict resolution. However, if escalations and oil prices continue to rise, Bitcoin could crash as traders will shift to traditional safe havens such as gold.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted oil prices will now push higher after retesting support. He remains bearish on Bitcoin for the short term. “Somehow I am on a bunch of threads with insane Bitcoin bulls. They are completely nuts. I need to do a lot of blocking, he said.

Bitcoin is trading near $72K as oil prices hold steady. The 24-hour low and high are $69,498 and $72,089, respectively. Furthermore, trading volume has increased by almost 7% in the last 24 hours, with traders awaiting US PCE inflation release.