Solana Price Forecast: Key Levels to Watch as FTX $5B Payout Sparks 4% SOL Price Dip

Solana price forecast sees renewed bearish pressure as FTX prepares $5B payout, triggering $236M in SOL unstaking this week.

Solana (SOL) Stumbles below $170 as FXT $5B Payout Sparks Volatility

Solana price tumbled 4% to hit $169 on Friday, May 16, after bankrupt crypto exchange FTX confirmed a $5 billion creditor payout.

On Thursday, the Solana (

SOL) price fell to $169, losing intraday support at $170 for the first time in May. This decline follows news that FTX will unstake and redistribute assets to fulfill its second major payout.

FTX’s estate said on May 15 that it would begin distributing $5 billion in digital assets to claimants on May 30. The payout will be processed via BitGo and Kraken, with settlement expected within 1–3 business days.

FTX Payouts aligns with 1.4B SOL Staking Withdrawals 

Solana price weakness coincides with an uptick in bearish positioning across Layer-1 tokens. According to StakingRewards, over 1.4 million SOL has been unstaked in the past seven days.

This move likely includes large portions held by FTX, which has been working to liquidate assets. At $169 per token, the un-staked SOL is valued at approximately $236 million.

Such large token movements typically generate sell pressure, especially if the assets enter exchanges or OTC desks for liquidation.

Solana’s sell-off appears part of a broader downturn in Layer-1 tokens. Coingecko data shows Ethereum fell 2.7% to $2,500, while XRP and Cardano posted 4% losses each.

This synchronized decline suggests macro-driven sell pressure, likely triggered by investors locking in gains before FTX’s payout introduces additional volatility risks.

Can Bitcoin Rally and ETF Optimism Anchor Solana Markets?

Despite SOL’s pullback, Bitcoin (BTC) price has remained above $100,000 for seven consecutive trading days, the first such stretch since January 2025.

This stability could help contain broader market panic. Historically, BTC resilience often stabilizes sentiment in large-cap altcoins such as Solana.

PolyMarkets data currently shows an 82% probability of SEC approval for altcoin ETFs by June 16. This could position Solana as a preemptive buy for strategic traders looking to front-run a potential SEC approval verdict next month.

Looking Ahead: Critical Weeks Ahead for Solana Price

The 4% SOL price dip from Thursday reflects both internal sell pressure and broader market rotation. FTX’s $5 billion distribution and associated unstaking remain the dominant narrative this week.

For bulls, reclaiming $170 and holding above $150 is essential to sustain momentum. With ETF optimism still looming and BTC holding firm, a rebound remains plausible, if fresh market demand driver emerge to offset the ongoing Solana sell-offs.

Until then, Solana price remains vulnerable to further downside risk, especially if large wallet holders join the sell-off.

Solana Price Forecast Today: SOL Faces Pressure Below $175 With Risk of Breakdown Toward $160

Solana (SOL) price forecast charts show vulnerability signals following a sharp 9.67% intraday drop on May 15, with only a modest 1.34% rebound to $171.42 failing to inspire strong bullish conviction.

Thursday’s session showed price closing just above the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) at $170.53, but the overall market structure remains fragile. The prior day’s high-volume sell-off, recorded at 7.17 million, reflects a meaningful rejection near the $185 level and a subsequent loss of momentum from buyers.

Technically, Solana has now slipped below the mid-point of the Keltner Channel, with $170.53 acting as weak interim support.

More so, SOL price action is notably hugging the lower half of the volatility envelope, and continued failure to reclaim the upper KC resistance at $181.06 casts doubt on bullish momentum.

Adding to downside risk, Bitcoin price forecast today, while relatively stable above $103,000, lacks clear bullish momentum. Without strong bullish momentum from BTC, altcoins like Solana are left more exposed to volatility risks.

Volume delta trends further emphasizes the sell-side pressure, with recent negative bars outpacing buying, suggesting distribution rather than accumulation at these levels.

Should SOL lose support at $170.53, the next clear downside target emerges at $161.74 to the lower Keltner band.

A break below this level would confirm a short-term bearish reversal, opening the door to $145 to $150, especially if macro sentiment weakens or Bitcoin falters.

Until Solana must post a decisive close above $175 with accompanying volume, for bulls to stand a chance of invalidating the bearish forecast.