XRP Lawsuit: Top Lawyer Places Odds of Complete Settlement at 18.987%

With the XRP lawsuit nearing its tail end, American attorney Jeremy Hogan believes that settlement is a good option for the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the long litigation with blockchain payment company Ripple Labs Inc.

Potential Next Move for SEC

Hogan attempted to clarify some confusion about the possible next moves in the Ripple vs. SEC case following Judge Analisa Torres’ rejection of an interlocutory appeal filed by the agency. 

With the defeat, the regulator still stands the chance to appeal the case. However, this can only be done when the whole case is finished and a “Final Judgment” has been proclaimed. 

Looking at the situation, Hogan thinks that the SEC does not have any real good options. He therefore outlined several possibilities moving forward and the likelihood of each of them happening. Furthermore, he added the timeline for each of the options.

XRP Lawsuit: Odds of a Complete Settlement

Firstly, the SEC may decide to move forward with the trial which is been scheduled to be held in April 2024, and focus its prosecution on Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen, the two Ripple executives mentioned as defendants alongside the company. On a scale of 100, Hogan sees a 39.456% possibility of this event happening.

At the same time, going to trial would mean that the SEC cannot file an appeal on the case until 2025 and an appellate ruling would likely not come out until 2026. Also, “IF the SEC wins on appeal, the case would most likely be remanded back to Judge Torres for further litigation” a trend that may not be suitable for the SEC.

The second option would be for the SEC to settle with Garlinghouse and Larsen while awaiting final judgment against the fintech firm. This has a 32.113% probability of happening and is the SEC’s best option according to Hogan. 

Finally, the SEC could choose to settle with Ripple and the individual defendants in the case. Till now, the regulator does not seem interested in a compromise and there is only an 18.987% chance of such a settlement.

The popular attorney believes that choosing the option of settlement will be a big win for the regulator who already seem to be on the losing side. If the SEC decides on this option, it stands a chance of receiving “a big big check from the bad guys,” Hogan explained, referring to Ripple.