Bitcoin Price Breaks Key Level, Risks Falling To $26K Ahead US Fed Rate Hike?

Bitcoin price risks falling to $26k as it breaks below the key 50-moving average ahead of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision.
By Varinder Singh
Updated July 17, 2025
Crypto Markets on Cautious Watch as US Stock Surge Cements Fed’s View

Bitcoin price breaks below the key 50-moving average ahead of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting risking a fall to $26k. The Fed is expected to deliver another 25 bps rate hike and markets await whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell is hawkish or dovish amid the banking crisis and debt ceiling crisis risking an “economic catastrophe.”

Ethereum price and altcoins will follow suit, bringing an overall crypto market correction amid the looming Fed interest rate decision. Also, there’s no support from whales as they are continuously selling.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Bitcoin Price To Break Further Ahead US Fed Rate Decision

As CoinGape Media reported earlier, the market will remain under selling pressure and volatile for several days from the monthly expiry on April 28 to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate hike monetary policy decision on May 3.

In the daily timeframe, BTC price broke below the key 50-MA level at $28.2k after failing to hold above the 20-MA at $29k. BTC price fell to a 24-hour low of $27,680 after breaking the key level. The price is currently trading at $28,011, down 2% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin price is also showing weakness at 1-hr and 4-hr timeframes, with RSI moving near the oversold region.

Bitcoin price
Bitcoin Price at Daily Timeframe. Source: TradingView

Bollinger Bands and other technical indicators are also painting a bearish picture ahead of significant macro events this week. Traders need to watch the key support level at $27.2k. If the BTC price breaks below this level, the price will fall to $26k to bring a market correction.

Also Read: Popular Analyst Predicts Looming Ethereum Price and Altcoins Crash

Moreover, analyst Ali Martinez noted that the Bitcoin whale transaction count of $1 million or more has been falling since March 22. This trend has various implications for BTC price such as declined trading activity among large holders or a possible shift in market sentiment.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Macro Impacting BTC Price

Bitcoin trading volume continues to decline as US Dollar Index (DXY) rises above 102 on strong US data and expectations of another 25 bps rate hike by the US Fed. As per the CME data, the probability of a 25 bps rate hike has jumped to almost 95% amid the recent buyout of First Republic Bank by JPMorgan, which is the second-biggest bank failure in U.S. history.

Meanwhile, US 10-year Treasury yields rose to the 3.55% level amid high inflation and eased concerns over turmoil in the banking sector.

Also Read: Top Exchange Lists Pepe Coin After 200% Rally, Will It Flip SHIB and DOGE?

Advertisement
Varinder Singh
Varinder has over 10 years of experience and is known as a seasoned leader for his involvement in the fintech sector. With over 5 years dedicated to blockchain, crypto, and Web3 developments, he has experienced two Bitcoin halving events making him key opinion leader in the space. At CoinGape Media, Varinder leads the editorial decisions, spearheading the news team to cover latest updates, markets trends and developments within the crypto industry. The company was recognized as Best Crypto Media Company 2024 for high impact and quality reporting. Being a Master of Technology degree holder, analytics thinker, technology enthusiast, Varinder has shared his knowledge of disruptive technologies in over 5000+ news, articles, and papers.
Why trust CoinGape: CoinGape has covered the cryptocurrency industry since 2017, aiming to provide informative insights to our readers. Our journalists and analysts bring years of experience in market analysis and blockchain technology to ensure factual accuracy and balanced reporting. By following our Editorial Policy, our writers verify every source, fact-check each story, rely on reputable sources, and attribute quotes and media correctly. We also follow a rigorous Review Methodology when evaluating exchanges and tools. From emerging blockchain projects and coin launches to industry events and technical developments, we cover all facets of the digital asset space with unwavering commitment to timely, relevant information.
Investment disclaimer: The content reflects the author’s personal views and current market conditions. Please conduct your own research before investing in cryptocurrencies, as neither the author nor the publication is responsible for any financial losses.
Ad Disclosure: This site may feature sponsored content and affiliate links. All advertisements are clearly labeled, and ad partners have no influence over our editorial content.