Crypto Market Rises as Fed Rate Hike Bets Fall After Cool PPI Inflation Data

The crypto market is up today, rising above $2 trillion as market participants price out the possibility of a Fed rate hike ahead of the July FOMC meeting. This follows the release of the PPI inflation, which came in lower than expectations.

Crypto Market Climbs On Soft PPI Inflation Data

The total crypto market is up over 2% today, rising to as high as $2.3 trillion, with Bitcoin trading above the psychological $65,000 level. Ethereum has also climbed above $1,900 for the first time since early June, up over 2% today.

The rise in crypto prices follows today’s release of the June PPI inflation data. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that producer prices fell 5.5% year-over-year (YoY) in June, below expectations of 6.2%, while this inflation metric fell -0,3% month-over-month (MoM), the largest decline since April 2025.

Core PPI fell 4.7% YoY, below expectations of 5.1%, and 0.2% MoM, below expectations of 0.3%, which signals inflation is cooling and is a huge positive for the crypto market. The PPI release follows yesterday’s CPI inflation data, which also came in below expectations.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market had also climbed yesterday following the June CPI release, which saw the largest monthly decline since April 2020. It is worth noting that inflation likely cooled off last month, partly due to the now-defunct ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.

Fed Rate Hike Bets Fall

Fed rate-hike bets have fallen further following the release of PPI inflation data, with market participants no longer pricing in a rate hike at the July FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch data shows only a 12.3% chance of a hike at the July 29th meeting, down from around 16% yesterday and from a recent high above 30% last week.

Crypto traders are also betting against a Fed rate hike at the July meeting. Data from the top crypto prediction market platform, Polymarket, show only a 4% chance that the Fed will hike rates at that meeting.

The odds of a Fed rate hike this year have also further fallen to 51% from around 55% yesterday and a recent high of 71%. However, it is worth noting that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned during his House hearing yesterday that the CPI inflation data does not mean the job is done, signaling that they still have a lot of work to do to bring it down to their 2% goal.