Analyst Predicts There Is No Scenario Where MSTR and COIN Stock Avoid a Major Drop

An analyst forecasts that the prices of Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) and Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) face a major drop because the narratives that sustained gains for these two crypto stocks have broken.

The analyst’s outlook comes when COIN stock price has dropped by 56% from its all-time high of $445. MSTR stock has also dropped by 80% from its ATH of $543 seen in November 2024.

Analyst Predicts Major Drops for MSTR and COIN Stocks

MSTR stock could drop further because the company has broken its “never sell” narrative after Strategy sold 3588 BTC in the week between June 29 and July 3, according to an analyst on X.

They added that Strategy cannot defend the thesis of issuing STRC preferred stocks so that they can buy more Bitcoin because the company has turned into a seller. This could deter the investors who once bought MSTR to get indirect exposure to BTC.

The analyst also has a bearish outlook on Coinbase, saying that COIN stock is under pressure from Robinhood after the latter launched the Robinhood Chain on July 1.

Robinhood now offers stocks, crypto, prediction markets, and now DeFi. Coinbase used to be the only public company that offered these services under one roof, but Robinhood’s expansion has taken away this competitive edge, and this could pull the price of COIN stock down.

But not all analysts are bearish on both stocks because analyst Alex Sirois opines that COIN is well-positioned to outperform MSTR in the long term.

The analyst says that Coinbase is the “structurally superior vehicle” because it keeps generating fees from traders trading crypto or betting on prediction markets despite the market being up or down.

This outlook comes after Mizuho trimmed the MSTR stock price target to $213 but maintained an “outperform” rating on the shares.

MSTR Stock Rejected at $100 Resistance Level as Selling Intensifies

The MSTR stock price gained by 0.80% on July 10 to close trading at $94. That drop occurred despite analysts forecasting Strategy could record a profit increase when its Q2 earnings come out on July 30.

Strategy shares face an obstacle at the psychological support of $100 because the stock has not moved above this price for three straight trading days.

MSTR stock has failed to move above $100 because of high selling pressure. This selling pressure is shown by the volume bars that have been red for two straight days.

If the sellers continue to offload shares, MSTR stock could drop to the June 26 low of $81.

But the AO bars that are green and shrinking in length suggest that bears are losing their grip. This could create room for MSTR to close above $100.

COIN Stock Faces Rejection at 20-day EMA Level as Buyers Hesitate

The price of COIN stock gained by 0.40% on July 10 to close trading at $159.

COIN faces resistance at the 20-day EMA of $161. The shares attempted to move above this obstacle on July 8 and July 9 without success.

Coinbase shares need to make three straight closes above this 20-day EMA of $161 to confirm that the short-term momentum is favoring bulls.

But if it is rejected at this obstacle again, the price of COIN stock could drop to the support of $148, with that drop confirming a triple-bottom pattern.

The CMF reading of -0.17 shows that buyers are hesitating to buy COIN stock the same way that they are hesitating to buy MSTR stock. This suggests the price could drop to $148.