U.S. Senate Targets August 7 for Final CLARITY Act Draft
The CLARITY Act did not make its July 4 signing target. A floor vote is now in the works, but it may come after the Senate returns from its recess July 13, as members work on the different versions of the two bills, drafted by the Banking Committee and Agriculture Committee, respectively.
That means the last possible day to release the draft before summer recess is August 7.
What Is Still Holding the CLARITY Act Up
Republicans must gain at least 7 Democrat votes to move the bill forward, and two undecided problems are preventing them from reaching their 60-vote bill.
The first has to do with ethical standards in the context of President Trump’s cryptocurrency income.
The second issue involves a debate regarding the extent of regulation that should be applied to the products offered by crypto platforms.
Both are important enough for senators to keep delaying the vote.
Law Enforcement Agencies Now Favor the Act
There is one piece of good news that has emerged this week in the bill: law enforcement. Major County Sheriffs of America removed their opposition to the DeFi provision and moved to a neutral position. It’s not a recommendation, but removing active opposition from a credible group is a big positive.
Other law enforcement groups had previously voiced objections to the bill, but this week the National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives also went in favor of the bill as covered by CoinGape.
Both Senators Lummis and Tim Scott have come out and made public appeals for a vote before the August recess.
What Polymarket Data Says
Polymarket currently has the CLARITY Act sitting at 47% probability of being signed into law by the end of 2026. The chances have dropped from 55% to 47% after the Senate failed to release the draft before July 4th.
The probability hit its highest level around 85% in early March before plunging in a relatively long, rough descent to its current position. The CLARITY Act will not fail if it doesn’t pass before August 7th, but analysts have continually predicted that passage in 2026 is unlikely if it fails to pass this summer.
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