Will Bitcoin [BTC] Fill 2 Large Bearish Gaps with CME Futures Closing Today?


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Will Bitcoin [BTC] Fill 2 Large Bearish Gaps with CME Futures Closing Today?

CME futures monthly closing for the month of January is due today. At press time, the monthly futures has gained 33% with the monthly futures price topping at $9745.

The volatility can expect to bring changes at the closing today. Nevertheless, looks like the volume of February contracts have already taken-over. The volume of January contracts has fallen bellow 100 on the exchange.

Gap Analysis

Moreover, while the strong positive closing rekindles bullish spirits, there are two bearish gaps looming on the daily charts.

Gap 1 at $8540, which occurred during the first weekend on a bullish break-out.

Gap 2 at $8935, which occurred during daily closing hours on CME. Nevertheless, the high of the day was fairly

btcusd
BTC Futures on Daily Price Chart CME (TradingView)

Both gaps were recorded by the price action within one week. Independent market researcher, alias, TheWhiskeyGuy recently posted statistics on how Gaps have worked in the past. According to his findings reported by Joel,

-95% of gaps close
-82% within the same week
-53% on the first day

But he also added, “Odds are always in favor of a close, but drawdowns if you only play the gap close can be painful and costly.”

Closing of other Long-Term Contracts

Furthermore, the monthly closing on Bitcoin is now expected above the closing and opening of Oct-Nov last year. The formation of higher high is a positive signal for the bulls.

xbtusd monthly chart
XBT/USD 1-Month Chart on BitMEX (TradingView)

The quarterly and bi-annual contracts offered by CME on BTC are projecting a bullish trend as well. According to expert derivatives and crypto trader, Josh Olszewicz,

$BTC CME rollover on the oct-jan contract 2mrw

– currently around BE (Book Entry) from open dec-jun bi-annual contract currently +30% from open

He also added, 

2) the bi-annual contracts have been binary so far – up or down
3) current contract is a strong up thus far, suggesting continued up until expiration on june 26th

cme bitcoin futures
CME BTC Futures Price Analysis (Source: Twitter)

The six month trend in CME contracts have so far been uni-directional. Accordingly, Bitcoin has pushed above November highs with profitable closings for contracts bought later.

Do you think Bitcoin [BTC] is headed towards $14,000? Please share your views with us. 

Author: Nivesh Rustgi
Nivesh from Engineering Background is a full-time Crypto Analyst at Coingape. He is an atheist who believes in love and cultural diversity. He believes that Cryptocurrency is a necessity to deter corruption. He holds small amounts of cryptocurrencies. Faith and fear are two sides of the same coin. Follow him on Twitter at @nivishoes or mail him at nivesh(at)coingape.com
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Nivesh Rustgi 1181 Articles
Nivesh from Engineering Background is a full-time Crypto Analyst at Coingape. He is an atheist who believes in love and cultural diversity. He believes that Cryptocurrency is a necessity to deter corruption. He holds small amounts of cryptocurrencies. Faith and fear are two sides of the same coin. Follow him on Twitter at @nivishoes or mail him at nivesh(at)coingape.com
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