Tomorrow marks one year of Bitcoin highs at $14,000, along with a lot of volatility expectations with monthly futures and options expirations. 26th June seems to be holding a lot of significance to Bitcoin price movements.
Last year, 26th June marked the last day of the bull market with a 9% rise to yearly highs, followed by a massive 13% drop on the next day.
The roll-over to July contracts seems to be limited just over $1 billion Options Contracts are still set for expiration tomorrow (quarterly and monthly).
Moreover, selling interest seems to be rising in the last couple of days as well. The combined put buys and call sells are at 55%, which is overall bearish. This is different from the orders a fortnight ago on 13th June, when over 68% of the options traders were positioned long at a similar price level.
Deribit exchange, which has the highest market share of the options contracts with 75% opened trading for Q3 (August 2020) and Half Yearly contracts for March 2021.
Just made available for trading on Deribit!
? August 2020 BTC and ETH options
? March 2021 BTC and ETH options
? March 2021 BTC and ETH Futures pic.twitter.com/KeQXBc23Mk
— Deribit (@DeribitExchange) June 25, 2020
CME Futures expiration is also due tomorrow. Nevertheless, we are already beginning to see a drop in the OI beginning on Wednesday with a tremendous rise in volume signalling a closing of those contracts.
On BitMEX, the perpetual swap OI is around $900 million with a slight inclination towards short with a 0.023% funding rate (the taker rate is 0.03%) On Okex, with equivalent volume, the positive of traders seem neutral as well with 0.96 long/short ratio and slightly positive funding rate.
Where Are We Headed?
Since May, Bitcoin’s [BTC] price is ranging between $8,500 and $10,000 with the mid-line around $9,300. Early morning today, the price tested lows at $8989 on Bitstamp. Since it bounced back in the following hours, the overall market direction still seems uncertain at the moment. Crypto trader, Piere Crypto (Alias) tweeted,
$9,300 – 9,400 has definitely been one of the most important / pivotal level on Bitcoin since Early May.
Moreover, the confluence of several indicators with the monthly open around $9450 will be a critical area for the bulls.
Last but not least, the volatility that the traders are expecting might not realize tomorrow itself, as Options contracts are not obligations for the traders. If the price continues to stay in the current range around the monthly open in between $9,200-$9,600, traders only stand to lose the premiums paid on the contracts.