- Bitcoin holds in a tight range between the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA on the 4-hour chart.
- A breakdown from $38,000 embraced support at $32,000, stopping further losses.
- Bitcoin must settle above $34,000 and the 200 SMA to confirm the upswing toward $40,000.
Bitcoin has managed to hold above $32,000 despite the sharp plunge from highs slightly above $38,000. It is likely that the upsurge on Friday last week was unsupported, mainly pushed by speculation. Several on-chain metrics had suggested that the largest cryptocurrency was poised for a retreat before it embarks on the grand journey to above $40,000.
Meanwhile, buyer congestion at $32,000 came in handy, not only controlling the influence bears had over the price but also giving the cockpit back to the bulls. Recovery from the anchor was steady but short-lived due to the selling pressure under the 200 Simple Moving Average.
Very little progress has been made above $34,000 due to this resistance. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading at $33,611 while battling seller congestion at the 100 SMA on the 4-hour chart.
On the downside, the pioneer digital asset has been supported by the 50 SMA. It is imperative that this support stays in place to avert declines back to $32,000.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart
For now, the least resistance path is sideways, as reinforced by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence. This indicator tracks the direction of the asset’s trend together with its momentum. Although the MACD cannot be used solely to enter a trade, it can help to identify buying the dip and selling the top positions.
Note that Bitcoin will continue with the upsurge, perhaps test the hurdle at $36,000 if the resistance at the 200 SMA is pushed in the rearview. At the same time, settling above $34,000 will remove fear and worry from the bullish camp, which would encourage them to increase their positions in anticipation of an upswing to $38,000 and $40,000, respectively.
Bitcoin intraday levels
Spot rate: $33,611
Relative change: 137
Percentage change: 0.4%