Clarity Act Odds Fall to New Low amid Patrick Witt’s Leave & Warren’s Ethics Rules Push

The odds of the Clarity Act getting signed into law this year dropped sharply to new lows on Tuesday. It fell as White House’s top crypto advisor Patrick Witt to go on military leave this month and Democrat Elizabeth Warren pushes to add ethics rules to the crypto bill.

Clarity Act No Longer Expected to Be Signed into Law This Year

The Polymarket prediction market shows that “Clarity Act signed into law in 2026” has plunged to its lowest-ever level and now holds around 37%. Notably, it dropped to 24% at one time in the past 24 hours.

Participants have sharply downgraded the Clarity Act passing odds in the Senate and reaching President Donald Trump’s desk this year. The crypto market structure bill already faces delays amid negotiations over ethics rules and a tight legislative timeline ahead of the August recess.

This comes as Patrick Witt, White House’s top crypto adviser, is taking a month-long military leave to begin Army National Guard JAG training. He is likely to rejoin White House duty on July 27.

The Clarity Act is entering its most critical stretch with Senate Republicans racing to bring it to the Senate floor before the August recess. Witt is the Trump administration’s lead negotiator to resolve concerns related to stablecoin yield, ethics provision, and law enforcement.

The biggest challenge remains the ethics provisions as President Trump’s crypto disclosures showed over $1 billion in personal crypto income. Also, the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) is still facing obstacles.

Patrick Witt’s deputy Harry Jung to take over negotiations. However, losing the lead negotiator just before the Clarity Act entered its most critical stretch caused odds to drop on Polymarket.

As public interest in regulatory outcomes rises, more traders are looking to the best crypto prediction markets to hedge their positions and speculate on legislative timelines.

Senator Elizabeth Warren Pushes to Add Ethics Rules in Crypto Bill

Senator Warren sent a letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Monday as Thune plans to hold a floor vote this month.

Warren urged Senate leaders that the Clarity Act must prevent the President, Vice President, senior administration officials, members of Congress, and their families from profiting off the crypto industry.

She is urging Senate leaders to add ethics rules to the crypto bill draft ahead of the full Senate vote. “Without strong ethics guardrails, the Clarity Act will make it even easier for Donald Trump to continue to profit off his crypto ventures,” said Warren.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump urged the Senate to pass the Clarity Act to honor Senator Lindsey Graham, who passed over the weekend.