Clarity Act Passing Odds Fall to 39% as President Trump Discloses $1.4B Crypto Income

The odds of the Clarity Act signing into law this year dropped to new lows on prediction markets. The odds fell after US President Donald Trump disclosed $1.4 billion in crypto income, raising ethics and conflicts of interest concerns.

Clarity Act No Longer Expected to Be Signed into Law This Year

Polymarket data revealed the chances of Clarity Act getting signed into law in 2026 fell to 39% on July 1. This marks a new low as the crypto market structure bill already faces a delay amid a tight legislative timeline.

Participants have sharply downgraded the prospects for the Clarity Act passing by the Senate and reaching President Donald Trump’s desk this year. Polymarket said the Clarity Act is no longer projected to be signed into law this year.

BREAKING: The “Clarity Act” is no longer projected to be signed into law this year. pic.twitter.com/pt7S5sYqjc

— Polymarket Money (@PolymarketMoney) June 30, 2026

Notably, Galaxy Digital cut Clarity Act passage odds to 50%, warning Senate calendar pressure and delayed floor action threaten crypto bill.

Moreover, the odds of crypto market structure bill passing in July and August have dropped to 0.1% and 13% on Kalshi prediction market. Over the last 24 hours, the odds of Clarity Act becoming law this year ranged from 36% to 44%.

The US Senate adjournment, traditional banks’ opposition, and demands for stronger ethics safeguards by Democrats have delayed the Clarity Act. Critics argue that the crypto bill lacks sufficient protection against conflicts of interest for public officials, particularly President Trump.

Trump’s $1.4 Billion Crypto Income Fuels Ethics Debate

President Trump’s latest financial disclosure revealed more than $1.4 billion in crypto-related income for 2025, as per the U.S. Office of Government Ethics. Democrats could challenge the Clarity Act provisions due to conflicts of interest concerns.

Notably, Trump reported over $635 million from licensing deals tied to TRUMP meme coin, more than $236 from WLFI token sales and $65.6 million from WLFI equity sales, and almost $197 million from USD1 stablecoin stake sales.

President Trump also holds $50 million in Bitcoin and nearly $25 million in Ethereum. Other income comes from crypto ventures including Melania Trump’s NFT sales and collectibles business.

The timing of the disclosure has intensified calls from Democrats, including Senator Elizabeth Warren and others, for conflict of interest provisions in the CLARITY Act. Notably, an earlier Senate Banking Committee amendment to restrict the president, vice president, and members of Congress from participating in crypto businesses failed.

The crypto legislation heading to the Senate floor must stop the President and his family from continuing to profit off crypto. https://t.co/qjEN6iT8GB

— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) July 1, 2026

White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt has been negotiating with senators on ethics issues, but progress has remained limited. Also, the Senate’s adjournment before the July recess increased uncertainty about the passage of the Clarity Act.

In addition, President Trump refused to sign the Housing bill containing CBDC ban, saying he won’t sign anything until Congress passes the SAVE America voting bill. Trump also met with Republican senators after refusing to sign the bill.