XRP Price Risks Crash Below $1 As CLARITY Act Fails: Polymarket

Ripple’s XRP is in more uncertain waters as traders, with the CLARITY Act not passing prior to the August recess. Polymarket data indicates that the price of XRP is being traded predominantly around the $1 mark, with one contract assigning the $1 price level a 71% chance for the coin to reach that price on August 10.

The prediction market data also suggests that there are not high hopes for a significant near-term rally. The 12% probability rate XRP will hit $1.20 on August 10 comes from a separate Polymarket contract.

XRP Traders Focus On $1 Support

Polymarket’s market for XRP on the 10th of August gives a probability of 99% for the price to fall into the range of $1 to $1.10. Only 1% is assigned to the $0.90-$1 range.

XRP price is also 28% likely to hit $1.05 on August 10 according to another contract. The probability that $1 is hit in that market is given as 5%.

Expectations for upside momentum are better in the short-term contracts. The probability of XRP going up is currently at 96% for the next hour, according to Polymarket. After 15 minutes, the chances drop to 76% and after 5 minutes, the chances drop to 50%.

However, the daily and four-hour markets are less bullish. The daily timeframe for XRP has a 10% chance of a rally, and the four hour time frame has a 7% chance of a rally.

Polymarket’s Weekly Market Shows Risk Below $1

The possibility for a further drop becomes clearer in the price action of Polymarket over the past week from Aug. 10 to 16.

Polymarket shows that there is a 50% probability that the XRP price will not reach $0.90 in that time frame.  The same market also features a 99% probability that XRP will hit $1.70. These are stand-alone price-outcome contracts, with probabilities associated to the different outcomes.

Polymarket’s longer-term predictions also indicate a lack of significant hopes for XRP breaking a record high. The chance of XRP reaching an all-time high by the end of 2026 is 5%, and the odds for the end of September is 1%.

The potential progress of the CLARITY Act on September 15 could positively affect the XRP price to break out of its $1.08 and $1.12 congestion, according to CoinGape analysis. It will take more volume of trades to move to $1.18. In case the bill is not passed, XRP will re-test $1, and $0.95 may be the next area for XRP to find support.

CLARITY Act Adds To The Uncertainty

The XRP price’s bearish outlook is due to another procedural obstacle for the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has introduced a cloture motion to the motion to proceed. The information states that the cloture vote will be held on Sept. 15, just after the August recess.

There’s still disagreement about the ethics provisions in the bill, and the bill has some issues concerning stablecoins. Additionally, some GOP senators have expressed concerns related to stablecoin yield provisions. Separate objections have come from law enforcement groups and prosecutors for the protections of non-custodial developers.

Polymarket have the CLARITY Act at 20% odds of becoming law this year, which is above its low of 13% in recent years.