Crypto Market This Week: US-Iran Deal, Jobs Data, FOMC Meeting, Bank of Japan Rate Decision
Highlights
- Crypto market is bracing for massive volatility owing to key macroeconomic events in the coming week.
- The US-Iran deal scheduled for Friday, June 19 takes the center stage.
- Meanwhile, the Fed interest rate decision, U.S. jobs statistics, and Bank of Japan's expected rate hike are also in focus.
The crypto market is heading towards a hectic week. Bitcoin and other risk assets are under traders’ focus as they await any indicators from the U.S. Federal Reserve, U.S. labor data and the Bank of Japan.
US-Iran Deal, Fed Decision & Jobs Data In Focus For Crypto Market
The biggest event for the crypto market is the US-Iran deal. The peace agreement is expected to be signed on June 19 in Switzerland, announced Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif. It could lead to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which may have a positive impact on Bitcoin and crypto as geopolitical tensions ease.
Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in…
— Shehbaz Sharif (@CMShehbaz) June 14, 2026
However, ahead of the deal the crypto market braces for volatility due to the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. During this Fed meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will make his first policy rate decision. Markets are anticipating the Fed to maintain rates unchanged. However, investors will be tuning in to Warsh’s comments on inflation and policy actions to come in the future.
There are several economic reports on the way before the Fed decision. On Tuesday, June 16, markets will get May housing starts and building permits data.
Moreover, retail sales, pending home sales and inventories of business are the key factors to watch on Wednesday. The Fed will make its decision on interest rates at 2:00 p.m. ET. Warsh’s press conference will be at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Labor data could also impact the crypto market. Initial jobless claims are due Thursday for the week. Economists are expecting jobless claims of 226,000, down from the previous level of 229,000. The stronger jobs data could hint at monetary policy tightening, which could weigh on risk assets like crypto.
Bitcoin Risks Volatility As Bank of Japan Eyes Rate Hike
In the meantime, Bank of Japan is also taking the focus. The BoJ’s short-term policy rate is likely to be lifted from 0.75% to 1.0% at a meeting on June 15-16. If approved, Japanese rates would hit their highest level since 1995.
Analysts say it could push global risk markets, including Bitcoin and the overall crypto market, under pressure.
In a post on X on Saturday, pseudonymous arndxt cautioned, it could be “one of the biggest macro risks for Bitcoin again.” The yen carry trade was cited as an catalyst. Fi years, investors borrowed cheaply in yen, and invested in higher-yield assets like U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, he added.
The expert added “if the yen strengthens sharply, leveraged positions funded in JPY can be forced to de-risk. That creates a global liquidity shock.” He explained, “BTC, being a high-beta liquidity asset, often reacts badly when funding conditions tighten.”
The analyst cited the July to August 2024 as recent examples. In that period, a Bank of Japan rate hike led to the yen strengthening and caused a rally in the crypto and stocks markets. At the time, leveraged carry trades also unwound, leading to a sharp sell-off in Bitcoin.
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