In 2 Weeks, Bitcoin [BTC] May Turnaround & Rally If History Guides
Except for 2017 and 2019, when Bitcoin performed relatively well, Q1s have been brutal for the most valuable coin.
For comparison, in 2014, the coin plummeted 39%, dropped 23% in 2015 before recovering in 2016 with a 3% loss.
However, Q2, prices swell as buyers throng into the asset. Last year, Bitcoin prices bottomed up from 2018 lows of $3,200 and more than doubled, peaking at $14,800 in June 2019.
Therefore, if historical prices lead, prices not only of Bitcoin but the entire crypto space considering the positive correlation may recover after a brutal Q1 2020 end.
With two weeks left to go, bitcoin is set for another underwhelming Q1 and potentially third consecutive negative quarter – first time since Q1 2015
On the positives, Q2 is usually strong! pic.twitter.com/1HYld5sP0V
— skew (@skewdotcom) March 16, 2020
After BTC prices soared to highs of $10,500, it has tanked to spot prices. That represents an over 50% price collapse.
The Coronavirus Pandemic and its dire Consequences
The situation has been exacerbated by failing fundamentals in the global scene thanks to the crippling coronavirus pandemic.
Coronavirus has negatively impacted supply chains and now economies have been placed in lock-down as their respective governments scramble to tame the virus.
The virus is highly contagious, and this is forcing health officials to suggest drastic—and even punitive measures to curb exponential spread of the deadly disease.
Bitcoin Prices reacting at key technical levels
Its effect has tangled the crypto market and a few weeks before a definitive halving, Bitcoin prices is depressed and hovering precariously at multi-year support levels.
Bears have reversed gains of 2019. Prices are reacting at around the 61.8% and 78.2% Fibonacci retracement levels, a deep correction that may be a basis for a recovery in days ahead.
BitMex BTC Open Interest Tanks
Already there is confidence because of this.
First, although BitMex’s Open Interest has dropped 64% from over $1.5 billion of mid-February 2020 to $530 million as per Skew, an analytics platform, the number of longs exceeds shorts, a precursor for bulls. Moreover, bullish trading volumes is on the rise.
And it gets better.
Buyers are actually incentivized and are paid by sellers. The funding rate is -0.14%. This is overly bullish and a hint of buyer confidence when the stock market is bleeding from a rout that seems not to have an end.
Further boosting trader morale is Changpeng Zhao, the CEO of Binance, who said he will continue to buy the coin with every penny he has.
Still worried about #btc going to 0?
Don't! So long as I have a penny left, it won't happen.
— CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) March 17, 2020
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