Bitcoin Price Prediction as Oil Climbs Above $70 Amid Doubts Over US-Iran Qatar Talks

Bitcoin (BTC) price has dropped by 3.5% today, June 30, to trade at $58,400 at the time of writing. The drop comes after Iran said that it has not scheduled any talks in Qatar, refuting earlier claims by the US that a high-level meeting will take place in Doha to end the four-month-long conflict.

Doubts Over US-Iran Talks in Qatar Move Oil Prices as BTC Drops Below $60,000

US President Donald Trump took to Truth Social on June 29, saying that Iran had requested to meet with the US and that the meeting would take place in Doha, Qatar, on June 30.

As of writing, President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and US envoy Steve Witkoff had already arrived in Qatar for these talks.

However, the spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baghaei, has said there are no scheduled talks between the two countries casting doubt on whether a peace deal will be reached soon.

“We will not have any negotiation meetings at any level with the American side in the coming days,” Baghaei said.

The uncertainty about these talks happening after the US and Iran halted strikes on June 28 has led to a slight gain in the price of crude oil to $71.

Bitcoin price also reacted to the development and dropped to $58,900, causing $69 million in liquidations on June 29.

Bitcoin Price Drops Below Consolidation Range as Bears Target Uncollected Liquidity

The price of Bitcoin has traded between $59,300 and $60,800 since June 25, but bears have pulled the price below the support level of $59,300 today, June 29, as selling pressure increases because of escalating geopolitical tensions.

The journey downwards will likely target the June 25 low of $58,115. There is also uncollected liquidity at this price of $58,115, and it will likely serve as a magnet that draws the price down in the near term.

The RSI reading of 33 suggests that the momentum is favoring bears, and Bitcoin price might drop to this June 25 low of $58,115.

Bitcoin needs to move above $59,300 and make three straight closes above that price to avoid this drop to $58,000.

The upper Bollinger band at $60,847 is also the main obstacle that BTC price needs to overcome to support a bullish long-term Bitcoin price forecast.

On-Chain Data Signals Accumulation by Long-Term Holders

Analysts have been saying that Bitcoin price has bottomed, and the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) from CryptoQuant is now supporting this thesis.

CryptoQuant analyst Facunda notes that the LTH-SOPR has dropped below 1, and while that shows that long-term holders of Bitcoin are sitting on losses, it is also the point where they start to buy more BTC.

The analyst noted that this SOPR ratio had dropped to below 1 in October 2022 when BTC traded at $20,000. However, by April 2023, Bitcoin price had reached $31,000 after long-term holders accumulated at the October low of $20,000.

But for Bitcoin to make the same gains it did in 2022, the US and Iran need to arrive at a lasting deal for peace so that BTC does not keep dropping when people sell because of geopolitical tensions or escalations.