Will LAPTOP Meme Coin Hold a $100M FDV One Day After Launch? Odds Reach 96%

• Polymarket prices NO shares at 27% while Yes trades at 73%.
• This market has recorded $0 in trading volume, with $66.4K traded in the past 24 hours.
• Liquidity currently stands at $25.6K, representing the available capital across the market.
• The market will resolve on December 31, 2026

Polymarket traders are currently giving Hunter Biden’s LAPTOP meme coin a 96% chance of retaining a fully diluted valuation above $100 million one day after launch. The odds strongly favour Yes even though the token lost more than 90% of its value during its first day of trading.

The market will use LAPTOP’s FDV at 4:00 p.m. ET on September 10. With a total supply of 1 billion tokens, LAPTOP only needs to trade above $0.10 at that time for the $100 million contract to resolve Yes.

LAPTOP Meme Coin Odds Favour a $100M FDV

So far, the $100 million LAPTOP contract has attracted about $289,000 in volume while trading across all the available LAPTOP valuation thresholds has exceeded $3.45 million. Polymarket calculates FDV by multiplying the token’s total supply by its price.

CoinMarketCap data showed LAPTOP trading near $0.84, giving it an FDV of approximately $835 million. The token could therefore fall by around 88% from that price and still remain above the $100 million threshold.

The other contracts show that traders expect a much narrower valuation by settlement. Polymarket places the probability of LAPTOP finishing above $500 million at 67%, compared with 40% for $750 million and 17% for $1 billion. The 50% point sits between $500 million and $750 million, suggesting the market’s median estimate is within that range.

These LAPTOP meme coin odds show greater confidence in the token clearing $100 million than returning to a billion-dollar valuation.

Could LAPTOP Still Fall Below $100M?

LAPTOP’s first-day performance explains why the No contract still has a price. CoinMarketCap recorded a 24-hour range between $401.12 and $0.7289, with the token down approximately 97.75% from its peak.

As we previously reported, the LAPTOP meme coin plunged from a peak FDV above $200 billion as shallow liquidity amplified its early price moves. On-chain data also showed that Wintermute sold 500,000 LAPTOP tokens for about $2 million and transferred more tokens towards exchange deposit addresses.

Further selling could pressure the token before settlement, particularly because only 35% of its supply was circulating at launch. However, LAPTOP would need to break below $0.10, far beneath its post-launch low, for the $100 million contract to resolve No.

The contract also uses one price reading at 4:00 p.m. ET rather than LAPTOP’s highest first-day valuation. Any move after that time will not affect the result. The LAPTOP meme coin odds therefore favour a short-term $100 million floor, not the token’s long-term price performance.