Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Odds at 79%

• Polymarket prices NO shares at 18% while Yes trades at 82%.
• This market has recorded $906.6K in trading volume, with $31.3K traded in the past 24 hours.
• Liquidity currently stands at $37.0K, representing the available capital across the market.
• The market will resolve on July 1, 2027

Polymarket traders are currently giving Anthropic a 79% chance of completing its IPO by December 31, 2026. The odds still favour Yes even though reports have moved the expected listing from October towards November.

This market’s resolution requires Anthropic shares to be listed on a public exchange and open for trading before the deadline, it goes on to clarify that a filing or IPO announcement will not be enough for the contract to resolve Yes.

Anthropic IPO Odds Favour a 2026 Listing

As of writing, the December 31 Anthropic contract has attracted approximately $821,100 in volume while the wider market across all the available IPO dates has reached $3.68 million.

A sharper look into earlier contracts reveals that traders are less certain the IPO happens sooner; an IPO by October 31 is priced at 4% while the November 15 odds stand at 36%. The probability moves above 50% for the first time at the November 30 deadline, currently trading at 54%.

From there, the odds rise to 74% by December 15 and 79% by December 31. That 25-point gap between November 30 and the end of the year leaves December carrying a large part of the Yes case. Only five points separate the final two deadlines, suggesting traders see little chance of a listing during the last half of December.

The reported timetable has already changed once, with the October target for the Anthropic IPO now seemingly out of the picture. More recent reports now point to a November market debut, with Anthropic potentially seeking a valuation of approximately $2 trillion and raising up to $100 billion.

On the upper hand, revenue growth supports the case for a listing this year. Anthropic’s annualised revenue run rate exceeded $65 billion at the end of July, up from approximately $9 billion at the end of 2025 but the company has not publicly confirmed the reported IPO date.

These current Anthropic IPO odds show that traders still expect the process to finish in 2026, but with most of the probability sitting in November and the first half of December.

Could the Anthropic IPO Slip Into 2027?

Timing is the main reason the No contract remains at 22 cents. Reuters reported on September 19 that Anthropic could wait until after the US midterm elections before going public. The company declined to comment on the IPO plans.

Anthropic is also considering another AI model as OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra attracts more enterprise users; prospective investors are looking at how the company balances spending on new models with profitability.

While a November launch still fits comfortably inside the contract deadline, the risk is that another postponement would leave less time for the roadshow, pricing and first day of trading. Even if Anthropic files its documents before the end of the year, the market settles No unless the shares are available for public trading by 11:59 p.m. ET on December 31. An acquisition by a company that is already public would also settle the contract as No.

At 79 cents, a winning Yes position returns 21 cents in profit per share. A delay into 2027 loses the 79-cent stake. The Anthropic IPO odds therefore favour the current schedule, but they give Yes holders less protection if that schedule moves again.