FOMC Meeting 2026 LIVE Updates Sept. 16: US Fed Hikes Interest Rates By 25 Bps

Fed Dot Plot Sends Hawkish Higher-for-Longer Signal

The Fed’s Dot Plot contained a hawkish message, with 12 of 18 members calling for one more 25-bps move by year-end, to 4.125%. Four officials have 4.375% in sight.

The higher for longer message is not just for 2026. Fourteen officials project rates through the end of 2027 at or higher than where they are today, while the median projection jumped to 3.9%, from 3.4% before.

In the meantime, the longer-run rate increased to 3.2%, indicating that Fed officials are increasingly believing the neutral rate is higher than what they once thought.

Fed Stays Hawkish, Signals Another Rate Hike in 2026

The Federal Reserve’s latest forecasts point to one more 25-basis-point rate hike in 2026, with the median of the FOMC making another increase after the decision on Wednesday.

Prediction markets are betting slightly more aggressively, with traders now anticipating about 1.9 rate hikes for the year. The split underscores the Fed’s uncertainty over the next policy steps amid its assessment of inflation and economic growth.

The Fed indicated the new rate increase will help them move toward a “timelier” return to the inflation target of 2%, as they seek to bring price pressures back under control.

Breaking: US Fed Raises Rates 25 Bps, Bitcoin Drops

The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, lifting its federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The move marks the first rate hike since July 2023, as the central bank responds to persistent inflationary pressures.

Bitcoin slipped below $76,000 as markets reacted to the Fed decision, extending pressure on the cryptocurrency after its recent decline. BTC was already trading near four-week lows ahead of the announcement following Tuesday’s sell-off.

The rate decision had been widely anticipated, with markets pricing in more than a 90% probability of a quarter-point increase before the announcement. Investors are now turning their attention to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments and updated economic projections for clues on the path of future interest rates. Read More.

JPMorgan Warns Fed Day Could Trigger 2% Stock Swing

The Federal Reserve’s decision on today’s rate hike, widely anticipated to be 25 basis points, could set the tone for whether stocks resume their rally or turn around in a dramatic fashion, according to JPMorgan.

JPMORGAN MAPS FED DAY: STOCKS COULD SWING 2%

JPMorgan says Fed communication could determine whether stocks rally or sell off after today’s widely expected 25bp hike.

A standard hike with limited guidance could lift the S&P 500 0.25%–0.75%, while a hike paired with a stronger…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 16, 2026

If the Fed gives a “normal” rate increase with not much clarity, gains could be in the range of 0.25% to 0.75% for the S&P 500, the bank said, while if the Fed gives a strong signal to battle inflation, it could be 0.5% to 1%. The surprise hold may lead to a 1.25%–1.75% drop. The most dangerous guidance is that rates have to be “materially higher,” which JPMorgan notes may lead to a 1%-2% decline in the S&P 500.

Standard Chartered Sees Tariffs and Inflation as Key Questions for Warsh

Standard Chartered officials are anticipating that Kevin Warsh will be questioned on tariffs and how they will affect inflation in his press conference. Investors may want answers as to whether tariff-induced price pressures are likely to be temporary, and whether the Fed should take action to tighten policy further, given its limited evidence.

If it is executed in a conservative manner, the increased expectations for further rate rises might be lowered, which would help defuse pressure on Treasury bonds. On the other hand, if Warsh indicates that the impact of tariffs might keep inflation high for longer, markets might factor in a more stringent policy stance, which could have an impact on riskier assets like Bitcoin and crypto.

Nomura Expects No Clear Fed Guidance on the Next Rate Move

The Fed’s next policy step will likely be left unspecified by Kevin Warsh, who made no comments about it, and will be extremely sensitive to next month’s inflation report, Nomura expects.

Instead of hiking again, or signaling a halt, Warsh could stress the importance of evaluating new evidence to make additional decisions. That would keep the policy room for manoeuvre but at the cost of making inflation reports more volatile. Markets could further be adjusting Treasury yields, the dollar, rate-sensitive assets as they await each inflation reading to determine whether the Fed will keep on raising rates.

JPMorgan Expects Warsh to Put Greater Focus on Economic Data

JPMorgan forecasts that during his press conference, Kevin Warsh to give some details of the path forward by the Fed. Rather, Warsh could have focused more on incoming economic data than he did in the past. If that is the case, then some markets will be watching closely for any sign of inflation or employment and growth data that will give them a hint at the next rate move.

A data-dependent message could lead to greater uncertainty in the near future as to how far rates will go, and make each major economic report more market-moving. In the coming weeks, fresh data may cause a significant reaction in treasury yields, the dollar and risk assets.

Deutsche Bank Wants Warsh To Clarify How Much More Tightening Is Needed

Kevin Warsh will need to provide more clarity about how much more the Fed will have to tighten in markets, Deutsche Bank expects. Warsh might be interpreting this cycle as a response to last year’s 75-basis-point risk-management cuts, and a return to a sufficiently tight monetary policy stance.

If this is seen as an additional sign of a normalization of policy, it may reinforce expectations for more steps up. A less aggressive outlook on rate increases could slow the moves, while a more upbeat assessment of future tightening could push yields up and add to pressure on rate-sensitive assets.

Citi Expects Warsh To Keep Fed Guidance Limited Despite Inflation

After the Fed’s decision today, Citi believes Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will offer minimal forward guidance, reiterating that inflation remains an issue and that the Fed has work to do. The path it would pursue would be dominated by economic data coming out of the Fed’s meetings and not set in stone for future policy decisions.

If there are not enough clues to guide markets over the next few months, that could keep inflation and employment data topics. However, should Warsh keep emphasizing downside risk in prices, investors may keep pricing in a higher-for-longer policy stance, further aiding Treasury yields and the dollar.

BMO Sees Warsh Avoiding Commitment To More Fed Rate Hikes

BMO thinks that Kevin Warsh will be playing it safe with a further increase in rates, calling today’s smaller increase a rate hike for risk management. The strategy would give policymakers the flexibility to take action in the face of inflation pressures without making any changes to the overall economic context.

On the other hand, conservative message may help to slow demand for an additional rate hike and help to defuse any pressure on Treasury yields and other rate-sensitive assets. But investors may stay on their guard for more robust inflation data that could lead to further hikes by the Fed. What the markets expect to hear from Warsh will be key to how they interpret today’s expected hike.

Barclays Expects Warsh To Keep Fed Hawkish As Inflation Stays Too High

Barclays sees Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh taking a hawkish stance after today’s rate decision, signaling that robust economic growth, near full employment and inflation above the Fed’s target are all important enough. The bank’s message in the policy as a whole is broadly on track with what Warsh has been saying before.

Guidance like this may continue to suggest more restraint and help maintain high interest rates, which may have an impact on rate-sensitive assets. The markets will therefore be looking closely to see if Warsh’s remarks are just the beginning of a policy tightening cycle or merely another reasoned adjustment.

Gold Surges Above $4,300, Silver Jumps Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

Spot gold and silver prices climbed on Wednesday in early U.S. trading as crude oil prices tumbled and bond yields eased pushed precious metals higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Gold traded near $4,342.50 an ounce, up 1.16%, while silver climbed 1.62% to $64.58. That decision is already somewhat priced in as markets have priced in a 25 basis-point hike at about 90%-93%.

Now, it’s all about Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference and revised projections. The strength of retail sales in August may argue for a hawkish policy. Further hikes may limit gains in metals without yield, while a one-and-done hike could help alleviate real-yield pressure.

Oil Slides Ahead of Fed Decision as Analyst Warns “All Roads Lead to Inflation”

WTI crude oil fell 1.59% to $103.81, extending a sharp intraday decline ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. The chart shows oil dropping from above $106.50 to below $104 before a modest rebound.

Macro analyst Lukus Ekwueme wrote on X that “Oil is getting hammered ahead of the Fed rate decision.” He argued that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a difficult policy trade-off.

Oil is getting hammered ahead of the Fed rate decision.

Bessent is shorting oil during illiquid trading hours right before Warsh's decision…

Regardless of the inflationary pressures, Warsh can't realistically keep rates higher for longer…

US gross federal debt is already… pic.twitter.com/tZ9SLeOQ1t

— Lukas Ekwueme (@ekwufinance) September 16, 2026

Ekwueme went on to say, “Fight inflation with higher rates and you make the fiscal problem and inflation worse. Cut rates and you are making the inflation problem worse.”

Fed Dot Plot Stays Hawkish, Keeps Another 2026 Hike in Play

The Federal Reserve’s September dot plot could keep markets on alert for another rate hike in 2026. The new predictions call for a median Fed funds rate of 4.1% in 2026, compared to June’s forecast of 3.8%. Indeed, tomorrow’s 25-basis-point cut is expected to be the last leniency to be granted by the policy makers.

The median remains at 4.1% for 2027, before falling to 3.4% in 2028 and 3.1% in 2029. The tone might be bearish on bonds if the 2027 cuts don’t come in that much, or if they come in less, it would be a positive tone for bonds.

Global Markets Brace For Rate-Hike Wave As Inflation Fears Surge

Higher energy costs have revived inflation concerns and now markets are pricing about four 25-basis-point Fed rate hikes over the next year, which will push the U.S. policy rate up to approximately 4.6%. ECB traders are also looking for the central bank to hike to 3.25%, while the Bank of England is pegged at 4.75%.

MARKETS MAY BE PRICING TOO MANY RATE HIKES

Markets now expect four 25bp Fed hikes over the next year, taking rates to roughly 4.6%, as surging energy prices revive inflation fears.

Traders also see the ECB reaching 3.25% and BoE 4.75%.

Reuters Breakingviews argues expectations…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 16, 2026

However, Reuters Breakingviews analysts say that the expectations have been pushed too far. Core inflation is relatively contained and high energy prices may ultimately result in a decline in household spending and economic growth, rather than continuing inflation. Hike expectations will become more of a problem as they become overpriced.

US Mortgage Pain Worsens As Rates Near 7% Ahead of Fed Decision

Demand for U.S. mortgages further dimmed last week after rates pushed higher toward 7%, adding to waning demand in housing before the Fed’s interest rate decision. Mortgage applications plunged 4.1% to their lowest level since May 2025, while refinancing applications dropped 8.8%.

U.S. MORTGAGE PAIN DEEPENS AS RATES NEAR 7%

U.S. mortgage applications fell 4.1% last week to their lowest since May 2025, with refinancing applications plunging 8.8%.

The 30-year conforming mortgage rate climbed to 6.97%, while jumbo rates jumped to 7.03%.

Market angle: with… pic.twitter.com/CMUigKW2VT

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 16, 2026

Meanwhile, the 30-year conforming mortgage rate climbed up to 6.97%, and jumbo rates to 7.03%. Housing demand and refinancing activity may be more negatively affected in the future with market rates remaining elevated. As investors await the Fed’s decision and its guidance in determining the future trajectory of borrowing rates.

Wall Street Divided On Fed Rate Path As September FOMC Meeting Looms

Wall Street is generally anticipating Kevin Warsh’s Fed to hike interest rates in the September FOMC meeting. However, major banks aren’t in agreement on what should follow. Both Bank of America and UBS predict it will rise again in December. Here, Bank of America is pegging the median dot at 4.1%, while UBS estimates the dot at 3.9% for the year.

FED DECISION DAY: MARKETS BRACE FOR A HIKE

The Federal Reserve delivers its September rate decision, with prediction markets putting an 88% probability on a 25bp hike.

What Wall Street expects

Bank of America: September hike, with Waller expected to dissent. BofA sees the 2026… pic.twitter.com/t1ROE7WGSD

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 16, 2026

Wells Fargo also has two 25 bps increases as its base case, but says “one and done” is still possible. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, does not see much reason for “aggressive tightening.” Market volatility may arise in the days ahead as traders interpret and read into the Fed’s predictions and guidance regarding the prospects for Treasury yields, the dollar and riskier assets.

Goldman Sachs Predicts Limited Case for Aggressive Fed Policy Tightening

The Federal Reserve’s expectations for further rate hikes are running at a more conservative pace at Goldman Sachs. For context, Goldman Sachs noted that there is little evidence to support a strong rate-hike cycle. Much of the current inflation overshoot is due to developments that the bank expects to diminish and so lessen the need for ongoing policy tightening. Some FOMC members, too, will likely be reticent to indicate further increases, the bank believes.

The markets may respond positively to the less hawkish tone by policymakers, especially with respect to rate sensitive assets. But more robust inflation readings or hikes being suggested would put that view at risk.

Wells Fargo Also Eyes Two More Fed Hikes, But “One and Done” Still Possible

Wells Fargo is expecting two more 25 basis-point hikes from the Fed in the near future, which is the base case scenario. But the bank does recognize that the “one and done” scenario is possible should the economic and inflation data turn sour. The conflicting scenarios could lead to fluctuations in the financial markets as investors determine just how far the Fed will go.

If rates continue to rise, then they will remain high and borrowers costs will stay high, but if rates go down and then back up, then the pressure on rate-sensitive assets may be reduced. Now, it the Fed decision will likely guide the markets on which direction to go.

UBS Expects Two Fed Hikes This Year, Predicts Bowman and Waller Dissent

The Federal Reserve has the potential to continue tightening in the months ahead, given UBS’ expectation that it will raise interest rates in September and December. The bank also anticipates Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller will object to today’s decision.

Moreover, UBS has the Fed’s median policy rate forecasted at 3.9% in 2026 and 2027. The second increase later this year may further weigh on borrowing rates and impact Treasury yields, the dollar and risk assets. The dot plot and officials’ guidance will be under close scrutiny by investors, as they look for confirmation of UBS’s rate path.

Bank of America Sees Fed Hike, Warns of Long-Term Yield Shock

Bank of America forecasts a September Fed rate hike and the possibility that Governor Christopher Waller will be one of the dissenters. The bank’s own forecast of the Fed’s median dot at 4.1% suggests that rates might stay high for a while longer.

Meanwhile, a decision to not raise will also lead to further upward pressure on the long end of the Treasury yield, according to BofA. This could have repercussions throughout the financial system, with up to higher interest rates and a strain on rate-sensitive assets. Investors will, therefore, closely follow the decision and the revised dot plot for any indications of the Fed’s longer-term course.

Fed Rate Hike Odds Near 93% Ahead of FOMC Decision: What To Watch

The Federal Reserve will make its decision on the interest rate today at 2:00 p.m. ET for September. This led to a press conference by Chair Kevin Warsh at 2:30 PM ET.

According to CME FedWatch data, the chances of a Fed rate hike have surged massively prior to the September FOMC decision. The probability of the Fed moving its target range up from the current 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00% is at 92.7% according to the tool.

Rates can, meanwhile, only have a 7.3% chance of staying the same. The hike odds were 93.5% a day earlier, 61.2% a week ago and 33.1% one month ago. The new price list signals that the market has high hopes for a quarter point at today’s meeting.

Will Warsh Defy Trump? Fed Rate Decision Puts Pressure On New Chair

The Federal Reserve is getting extra attention with calls from U.S. President Donald Trump to cut rates following its policy decision as Chair Kevin Warsh is set to announce the next change. Trump made the case on September 4 that the US economy is “much stronger” than data from the Federal Reserve’s jobs report indicated, calling the Fed to “lower the interest rates.”

He also said the US should have “the lowest rate of any country in the World.” However, more recently, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Trump takes Warsh’s independence seriously, in which he can make his decision without any interference from political factors.