FOMC Meeting 2026 LIVE Updates Sept. 16: Will Warsh Defy Trump With Fed Rate Hike Today?
UBS Expects Two Fed Hikes This Year, Predicts Bowman and Waller Dissent
The Federal Reserve has the potential to continue tightening in the months ahead, given UBS’ expectation that it will raise interest rates in September and December. The bank also anticipates Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller will object to today’s decision.
Moreover, UBS has the Fed’s median policy rate forecasted at 3.9% in 2026 and 2027. The second increase later this year may further weigh on borrowing rates and impact Treasury yields, the dollar and risk assets. The dot plot and officials’ guidance will be under close scrutiny by investors, as they look for confirmation of UBS’s rate path.
Bank of America Sees Fed Hike, Warns of Long-Term Yield Shock
Bank of America forecasts a September Fed rate hike and the possibility that Governor Christopher Waller will be one of the dissenters. The bank’s own forecast of the Fed’s median dot at 4.1% suggests that rates might stay high for a while longer.
Meanwhile, a decision to not raise will also lead to further upward pressure on the long end of the Treasury yield, according to BofA. This could have repercussions throughout the financial system, with up to higher interest rates and a strain on rate-sensitive assets. Investors will, therefore, closely follow the decision and the revised dot plot for any indications of the Fed’s longer-term course.
Fed Rate Hike Odds Near 93% Ahead of FOMC Decision: What To Watch
The Federal Reserve will make its decision on the interest rate today at 2:00 p.m. ET for September. This led to a press conference by Chair Kevin Warsh at 2:30 PM ET.
According to CME FedWatch data, the chances of a Fed rate hike have surged massively prior to the September FOMC decision. The probability of the Fed moving its target range up from the current 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00% is at 92.7% according to the tool.
Rates can, meanwhile, only have a 7.3% chance of staying the same. The hike odds were 93.5% a day earlier, 61.2% a week ago and 33.1% one month ago. The new price list signals that the market has high hopes for a quarter point at today’s meeting.
Will Warsh Defy Trump? Fed Rate Decision Puts Pressure On New Chair
The Federal Reserve is getting extra attention with calls from U.S. President Donald Trump to cut rates following its policy decision as Chair Kevin Warsh is set to announce the next change. Trump made the case on September 4 that the US economy is “much stronger” than data from the Federal Reserve’s jobs report indicated, calling the Fed to “lower the interest rates.”
He also said the US should have “the lowest rate of any country in the World.” However, more recently, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Trump takes Warsh’s independence seriously, in which he can make his decision without any interference from political factors.
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