Will SpaceXAI Have the Best AI Model at the End of October 2026? Odds at 1%

• Polymarket prices NO shares at 99% while Yes trades at 1%.
• This market has recorded $21.4K in trading volume, with $300 traded in the past 24 hours.
• Liquidity currently stands at $31.4K, representing the available capital across the market.
• The market will resolve on November 1, 2026

Polymarket traders are currently giving SpaceXAI only a 1% chance of having the best AI model at the end of October 2026. Anthropic is the clear favourite at 88%, even after SpaceXAI released Grok 4.6 and Elon Musk suggested that another Grok model would follow.

According to the contract’s resolution rules, it will settle using Arena’s Text Arena Overall leaderboard at 12:00 p.m. ET on October 31. As of writing, Anthropic holds the first three positions while SpaceXAI’s highest-ranked model is 30th.

SpaceXAI Prediction Market Odds Favour No

The October AI model market has already attracted about $272,929 in volume as of September 15. Anthropic leads with 88%, followed by Google at 6.5%, OpenAI at 3.9% and Meta at 2.2%. SpaceXAI Yes shares are trading at 1 cent, compared with 99.4 cents for No.

The resolution leaderboard explains why the market is not even close to optimistic given that Arena’s data from September 13 ranked Claude Fable 5 first with 1,506 points. Claude Opus 4.6 High was second, while Claude Opus 4.7 High took third place.

Grok 4.20 Beta1 was SpaceXAI’s strongest entry at No. 30 with 1,475 points. More notably, Grok 4.6 High sat at No. 63 with 1,456 points. This is despite Grok 4.6 matching OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol on the separate Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index.

Polymarket will not consider that result since rules specify the Text Arena Overall table with style control off and no other adjustments. Any model carrying an AutoEval label when the table is checked will be left out.

The SpaceXAI prediction market odds are therefore tied to Grok’s Arena position, ignoring potentially strong results on other benchmarks.

Could Grok 4.7 Change the SpaceXAI Odds?

A new model looks like SpaceXAI’s best chance of closing the gap. While Musk teased Grok 4.7 would arrive in a few weeks, Grok 4.6 remains the latest model listed on SpaceXAI’s website.

More importantly, Grok 4.7 would need to enter Arena early enough to collect votes and receive a proper rank. An AutoEval position would not count, regardless of its displayed score.

On the other hand, Anthropic also has some protection if Claude Fable 5 loses first place. Two other Claude models are directly behind it; the Fable 5 launch is still a bit fresh which further complicates the equation.

For the Yes contract to win, SpaceXAI needs an eligible model to move from outside the top 20 to first place before October 31. The present leaderboard supports the 1% price. A new Grok release could change the SpaceXAI prediction market odds, but the models already available are not close enough.