Will Tesla and SpaceX Announce a Merger by December 31? Odds Put Yes at 19%

• Polymarket prices NO shares at 85% while Yes trades at 15%.
• This market has recorded $207.4K in trading volume, with $5.0K traded in the past 24 hours.
• Liquidity currently stands at $22.0K, representing the available capital across the market.
• The market will resolve on January 1, 2027

Polymarket puts a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by December 31, 2026 at 19%. Yes trades at 19 cents and No at 82 cents. Musk’s latest comments have kept the prospect in view, though traders give it long odds for this year.

The December contract resolves Yes if either company announces a merger or controlling acquisition by 11:59 p.m. ET on New Year’s Eve. The transaction can close later since Tesla and SpaceX already do business together, but their current arrangements do not meet that test.

Tesla SpaceX Merger Odds Favour No This Year

About $183,000 has already traded on the December outcome, against $1.21 million across all deadlines. The September contract sits at 2%; June 2027 rises to 64%, on just $15,700 of volume. Each market asks whether an announcement happens by its deadline. The later price suggests traders see a better chance with more time, though it rests on much thinner trading.

Three and a half months is a narrow window for a deal of this size although Musk has discussed the prospect in public, but has yet to put a transaction before investors. A statement from either company could move the Tesla SpaceX merger odds quickly. But for now traders have to weigh his comments against the lack of a formal proposal.

Tesla has given the merger talk a tangible basis in its first-quarter update describing a SpaceX partnership to build a chip fabrication facility, starting with a Tesla-owned research fab in Texas. The company’s March filing disclosed a $2 billion SpaceX investment but put Tesla’s stake below 1% which is far short of the controlling interest required under Polymarket’s rules.

Could Musk’s Comments Bring an Announcement Closer?

Asked about a possible combination on Tesla’s July earnings call, Musk said it would need to go through the appropriate process, as reported at the time. In an All-In Summit interview published September 15, he discussed their collaboration when asked why the companies remain separate. However, neither appearance supplied a deal structure or a date.

Musk also shut down one rumoured path to a deal. He dismissed a report that Tesla might sell or spin off its China business before a SpaceX merger. That was a denial of the China story but left the wider merger question open.

The Tesla SpaceX merger odds are at 19% despite the joint chip project and Tesla’s stake in SpaceX. Musk has entertained the idea, but neither company has set out a deal. With just over three months until the deadline, traders appear to think a merger needs more time.