Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates After the October 2026 Meeting? Odds Split 50–50

• Polymarket prices NO shares at 49% while Yes trades at 51%.
• This market has recorded $1.6M in trading volume, with $331.4K traded in the past 24 hours.
• Liquidity currently stands at $570.5K, representing the available capital across the market.
• The market will resolve on October 28, 2026

Twelve Fed officials voted to raise rates on Wednesday. A day later, the next decision looks harder to call; Polymarket has a 25-basis-point October increase at 50% and a hold at 50%. More than $6.3 million has traded across the October event. 

As of covering Wednesday’s decision, a hold in October stood at 62%. The Fed had just raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since 2023. The hold price has since fallen to 50%; traders now give a back-to-back hike much the same chance.

The dot plot leaves October open

September’s statement by the Fed signalled another potential rate hike this year. Officials described solid economic activity, job gains that have kept pace with the workforce and inflation that remains elevated. Their new projections put 2026 PCE inflation at 3.7%, compared with 3.6% in June.

At the same time, the median year-end interest-rate projection is now 4.1%, up from the 3.8% projected in June. Sixteen of 18 participants placed their own year-end rate above the current range’s midpoint. A single quarter-point rise would take the range to 4.00%–4.25%, in line with the median projection. 

Worth noting that the dots are individual year-end views, including those of officials who will not vote in October and cannot be counted as votes for a hike at that meeting.

The Fed also meets on 8–9 December, so officials could reach that year-end rate after holding next month ahead of the Midterms. Meanwhile, Barclays called for two hikes in 2026 before September’s vote. One has happened; the timing of the other is still up for debate.

October Fed rate hike odds: jobs first, CPI next

There are two releases to watch before the Fed meets on 27–28 October; September’s employment figures are due on 2 October, followed by September CPI on 14 October. 

The Fed’s new unemployment projection for 2026 is 4.1%, down from 4.3% in June. Strong hiring and stubborn price growth would make a second consecutive hike easier for officials to defend. Softer figures would give them a reason to pause after September’s increase.

This particular contract’s resolution rules compare the upper bound of the rate announced after the October meeting with the upper bound immediately before it, currently 4.00%. If it rises to 4.25%, the 25-basis-point increase wins. Holding at 4.00% in October and hiking in December settles the October contract as no change.