Spot Bitcoin ETF: Odds of SEC Disapproval Falls to 5%

The anticipation for spot Bitcoin ETF approval from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is at an All-Time High (ATH) with analysts finding a limited number of reasons why the market regulator will reject the product at this time.

Odds of Spot Bitcoin ETF Rejection

According to Bloomberg’s top ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, the odds of rejection of the spot Bitcoin ETF have now fallen from 10% to a mere 5%. He cited the need to leave room for the 5% just for uncertainty’s sake as anything is possible even with the assurances the industry has at the time.

The comment came as a response to an earlier post from James Seyffart, another ETF analyst with Bloomberg who cited three events that may likely happen if the markets regulator turned around to deny a spot Bitcoin ETF against general expectations. Seyffart noted that should there be a denial, GenZ investors will go “nuclear” and the SEC will be dragged to court again.

Well said although I probably go with 5% at this point. But you gotta leave a little window open for these things.

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 6, 2024

Recall that Grayscale Investments once sued the SEC and won the lawsuit when the regulator denied its application to convert its Bitcoin Trust into a full-fledged spot Bitcoin ETF. With the court ruling that the SEC’s decision to reject was “arbitrary and capricious,” legal experts believe the Gary Gensler-led body has argued all of its cases for rejection in court and is unlikely to trail that path again.

In all, James Seyffart believes the Biden administration will also swoon in to save the day if the SEC mistakenly denies a spot Bitcoin ETF.

BlackRock’s Assurance Adds to Growing Optimism

As reported earlier by Coingape, BlackRock is optimistic about receiving approval for its spot Bitcoin ETF application as of Wednesday next week, adding to the positive sentiments the industry has in the expectations of the classic product.

Earlier, VanEck’s Matthew Sigel hinted at how prepared BlackRock is for the iShares Bitcoin Trust as the firm notably has about $2 billion in wait to inject into the market once the much-anticipated approval is secured.

Experts believe that the SEC will not take applicants through the stages they have faced in recent times only to switch gears and disapprove. Expectations are high that the product will be approved in the coming week.