Analyst Warns Bitcoin Could Crash to $10k Amid US-Iran War

As the US-Iran war continues to escalate, Bitcoin is feeling the heat again. Amid rising uncertainty, analysts warn the pioneer cryptocurrency could see massive declines, possibly dropping to a low of $10,000.

Analysts Predict Bitcoin Crash to $10K

In a critical analysis on CryptoQuant, XWIN Research Japan projected a massive 80% fall in Bitcoin. If this projection comes true, BTC will continue its current bearish trend until it reaches a severe low of $10,000. His prediction read,

“In an extreme case—such as prolonged Hormuz Strait closure or full-scale conflict—global liquidity could collapse. With equities down >30% and oil at $150–200, BTC could drop toward $10k (-80%).”

Notably, this projection comes on the heels of Bitcoin’s steep fall on Thursday after US President Donald Trump’s speech. During the speech, Trump stated that the US-Iran war would escalate in the coming two to three weeks. While many hoped for a de-escalation, Trump asserted that the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks.

The Bursting Crypto Bubble and Potential $10,000 Bitcoin in 2026 –

Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting. Roughly $10,000 is also the first-born crypto's most traded price since 2017, when futures were… pic.twitter.com/bchbAOcYxi

— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) April 2, 2026

In addition to XWIN, Bloomberg Strategist Mike McGlone also reiterated his long-standing bearish view on BTC. He stated that the coin could eventually fall back to around $10,000. He also added that $10,000 has been one of Bitcoin’s most heavily traded levels since futures began in 2017. This suggests that it is a key point where the market tends to stabilize.

Trump’s Speech on US-Iran War Pushes Bitcoin Down

While Bitcoin hovered around the $69k level before the speech, it swiftly plunged to $67k after it. Now, the BTC price is at $67,098, up 0.65% in a day. However, it is still down by 1.66% and 3.49% in a week and a month, respectively.

Investors also reacted to the speech by selling off assets. The S&P 500 fell 0.23%, the Dow dropped 0.39%, and in Asia, South Korea’s KOSPI fell 4.2%. Oil prices surged 11.4% to $111 a barrel, and the U.S. dollar strengthened.

According to the analyst, these developments are negative for Bitcoin. Higher oil prices raise inflation expectations, and a stronger dollar tightens global liquidity. Both these factors typically push investors away from riskier assets like cryptocurrency. The analyst added,

“Such a structure is fragile. Under stress, positions unwind via liquidation rather than rollover, creating cascading sell pressure. In a moderate scenario, BTC could fall from $70k to ~$50k (-25–30%). If ETF outflows and weak spot demand persist, mid-term downside extends to $30k–$20k (-60–70%).”

Today, BTC is witnessing renewed pressure as geopolitical tensions rise. The United Nations Security Council blocked an Arab-backed plan to use force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Russia, China, and France opposed the resolution, increasing uncertainty in the markets.